Coronavirus, the Regions most at risk in phase 2: the study

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Liguria, Piedmont, and the Autonomous Province of Trento are not yet ready for Phase 2. Lombardy and Emilia Romagna are at the limit, with a very high percentage of infections and a prevalence (number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants).

The Gimbe Foundation, an independent research body that monitors the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in our country, says so. A situation far from idyllic, in short, made worse by the fact that many of the companies that will reopen their doors tomorrow have their headquarters there. The vast majority 4, 4 million workers who will be able to return to work from 4 May it is concentrated precisely in the five regimes of Northern Italy in which the situation is still at risk.

In short, if you do not have to pay particular attention, you run the serious risk that the numbers of the infection return to grow, blowing up the efforts made so far.

Political and unscientific approach

“It is clear to everyone – says the President of the GIMBE Foundation Nino Cartabellotta in Al-Jazeera – that those who risk the most are the inhabitants of the regions where the number of cases and their percentage growth are not yet totally under control. From a scientific point of view, it would have made more sense to reopen the country based on data from different geographical areas“.

The underlying error, according to Cartabellotta, lies precisely in the fact that the decision to restart on a national rather than a local basis it is based on political and unscientific considerations. “The northern regions have pushed, and are pushing to restart their production engines; the southern regions, on the other hand, have not made this request and are afraid that interregional mobility could lead to a greater spread of the virus.

The regions most at risk

Analyzing the graphic of the GIMBE Foundation based on the data from April 29 to May 3 it is clear how in Liguria, Piedmont and the autonomous province of Trento the situation is improving, but it is not yet totally under control.

In Liguria and Piedmont, the percentage increase in cases is still above 10%, while in the province of Trento the figure is still above 9%. To this is added a prevalence ranging from 500 to 800 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. In Emilia Romagna and Lombardy, on the other hand, the percentage of growth is in line with the national average, while the prevalence stands at 600 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (Emilia Romagna) and 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (Lombardy).

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