Italy: 54,030 coronavirus sufferers But there are encouraging signs


The numbers of the epidemic are increasing, but their fluctuations must not be misleading because they hide a trend that for the first time leads to a slight optimism.

The 54,030 coronavirus sufferers in Italy increased by 3,612 compared to 3,780 on Monday, the infected, including the victims and the recovered, are now 69,176; there are 6,820 deaths, 743 more than Monday’s 601, but we must look beyond the fluctuations of these figures. “The national death rate is higher, but the percentage of growth must be calculated over several days, on an average, because the fluctuations cover the true signal”, observed physicist Federico Ricci Tersenghi, of the Sapienza University of Rome and between the editors of the Facebook page ‘Coronavirus-Data and scientific analysis’.

“In the last few days – he continued – the national figure is continuing to decline gradually but regularly; we are going towards a peak quite close, always on the assumption that the data are realistic and not underestimated “. We can see signs of improvement, such as to lead to “slight optimism”. The epidemic curve begins to slow down and the trend seems confirmed also at the regional level.
They particularly encourage the data collected in the last few days especially in the most populous central regions, such as Tuscany and Lazio, which together with those of Campania are considered to be crucial indicators. Their data suggest that the first effects of the restrictive measures are beginning to be felt, although fluctuations are also seen in these cases.

“It is still early to lose balance – said Ricci Tersenghi – and the trend will have to be confirmed in the next few days” The epidemic curve is slowly starting to tilt also for the astrophysicist Fabrizio Nicastro, of the National Institute of Astrophysics (INAF), on Facebook page ‘Numerical analysis and statistical data group Covid-19’. So much so that a possible peak date could arrive by March 29: an estimate that is based on the most certain data available, namely the number of deaths. For Nicastro, the epidemic curve continues to slowly decline, both nationally and in the regions, and the pace of deaths has slowed down growth, reducing the rate of increase from 30% recorded between 8 and 15 March to 17-18% the following week. These are estimates, he specified, that “will have to be confirmed by further data”.

Encouraging signs also come from the world of research, with the signing of a memorandum of understanding and the allocation of eight million euros aimed at developing a vaccine against the SarsCoV2 coronavirus disease, Covid-19.
The Lazio Region and the ministries of Health and Research signed it, with the National Research Council (Cnr) and the Spallanzani Institute.

A step that, for the Minister for University and Research, Gaetano Manfredi, “affirms the international prestige of our research, making it a protagonist in the global vaccine race”. Also for the president of the Superior Council of Health, Franco Locatelli, it is an “important step, which testifies to the efforts of the country’s health authorities in finding the most appropriate answers”. For the President of the Lazio Region, Nicola Zingaretti, “with our scientific excellence and with the 8 million euros we want to make a vaccine capable of saving lives available and accessible”.

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