Against the background of the great leap in the Corona virus and after a new record of infections in a day, today (Wednesday) Prof. Eran Segal from the Weizmann Institute of Science spoke with Ben Caspit and Winon Magal in their program on 103FM about the default and his fears of continuing the crisis: Take advantage of it to treat it and reduce the morbidity. ”
Gamzo in Dalit al-Carmel (Photo: Mazawi Communications, Ministry of Health Information Center)
Magal: I understand you made an agreement with a university in the Emirates?
“Yes. There is a beginning of something.”
Sickle: Amazing. Not what we’ll talk about, but amazing. I heard in the news that a decision has been made to close the education systems starting tomorrow. your reply?
“You know, we go into closure on Friday. Therefore, a day here or a day there is not the most important thing. Look, after a very high level of stability we see a new outbreak here and it must be said that it puts us very, very close to the 90th minute of a system collapse. Health. I mean, according to our models, we’re experiencing 600 to 700 severe patients in hospitals in a week. Today we’re at 530 and we’ll think now about some sort of coordination of expectations for closure. In the first closure, from the moment it was announced on March 17, it took about two weeks to start “See the decline. After the closure was announced, the numbers went up.”
Mercury: What caused the situation to deteriorate in such a way?
“There has been stability for a very long time, and we could have used it to reduce morbidity, but we did not. You know, there were government decisions from July 13 that there would be no events and weddings, but there were events and weddings. There are morbidity centers, half of the country is “It was red, but then there were centers of illness that wanted to treat them and there were proposals to treat them, but they did not do so. The epidemic continued to spread, and the last trigger was undoubtedly the education systems.”
“The percentage of tests that turn out to be positive on a national average is between 8 and 10 percent. For boys between the ages of 15 and 21, who are yeshiva students and soldiers in the army, it reached 26 percent. These are very, very high numbers, and it shows us that there was an outbreak. “Analyzing the numbers, we find that in these age groups there was a threefold increase in the number verified compared to two weeks ago. In the end, this outbreak reaches adults as well, and that’s where we see the increases, and I think that was the last trigger.”
Mercury: Say, what do you think about the form of the closure?
“As it seems the instructions are not very clear, but I want to say something you wanted more on Hi-Label, if eventually there will be a half closure here we are expected to take a long time until we see a decrease in morbidity. I mean maybe in a month and a half we will go down to 1,000 patients. Still too much. ”
Magal: How long of closure are we going?
“I do not know what in the end they will actually decide, but there is no doubt that we need to reduce the morbidity. If we now make moves that will eventually reduce the number of patients to 2,000 or 1,500 and open the closure then a month later we will find ourselves in the same place. “We are already going for a move like this, he needs to succeed and we will lower the numbers. Such a move, even in the conditions of the first closure, will be a very long move. We lost control a long time ago, even when we were stable we knew it was not possible.”
“In the plague, either you go down or you go up, and finally on us. It’s true that Israel is a small country, but you can not during the epidemiological investigations track 4,000 people, and know what their contacts are. Because that means covering 200,000 people every day, and that’s impossible “A system of investigations can effectively treat a few hundred people at best, say 200 or 300. Therefore, that should be the target. It is that we have waited so long because the health care system has not collapsed.”
Magal: In short, if they had listened to Prof. Barbash, who two months ago had already said that we should close, our situation would have been better.
“I’ll give you an extreme example of this in New Zealand. They had a hundred days with no infections at all. On the 101st they discovered 4 new infections. You know what they did? They did a three-day closure.”
Sickle: Amazing and we’re smart.
“Say it’s an overreaction, obviously it’s an overreaction as New Zealand can treat four contagious people, but after a three – day closure you eliminate the incident and return to a normal life routine.”
Mercury: “Say Prof. Segal I have a more difficult question – if there was no political pressure on the ultra-Orthodox prime minister, and a problem with the Arabs, and if we had already identified a month or a month and a half ago the red areas, which by the way your model helps identify even before, “Yes, I mention that a few days ago they wanted to impose a night curfew and it did not help that the ultra-Orthodox rebelled and the Arabs rebelled. In short, the inability to isolate politics from professional medicine was in our backs?”
“I do not want to get into this point, but by and large you are right. If we had treated the morbidity centers and responded quickly, because we know today that what matters most is the quick response, we could have avoided this situation. Today it is clearly too late.”