Finance forecast: It will take at least another four years until the economy returns


Even a recovery, accompanied by relatively limited new restrictions as a result of rising morbidity, will not spare the economy, and will also lead to an overall damage of about 8.9% in GDP compared to the previous growth forecast for 2020, which stood at 3%. In this case, the unemployment rate will be 10% at the end of the year. Meanwhile, a contraction in exports is expected, with an emphasis on the export of goods in industries with medium-low technological intensity, and a halt in the export of tourism services.

In addition, data were published indicating the extent of the damage in certain industries, which is reflected in a decrease in the collection of taxes from business owners in these areas. Thus, tax collection in the tourism industry decreased by 44.9%, in the arts and entertainment industry by 34.9%, in households by 32.5%, in mining and quarrying by 30.5% and in real estate activity by 5.7%.

Along with these data, the Ministry of Finance says that the experience from the world in recent decades shows that after significant economic crises, many years may pass until the return to full employment of. On the order of four to five years. Four to five years, and sometimes even longer. At the same time, there is great uncertainty about the duration of recovery from the crisis in the labor market in light of the nature of the current crisis.

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