Respondents have become slightly more positive about the economy. Last month was still 56.4% pessimistic or very pessimistic, now it is 53.8%. We also see this slight improvement in the mood on the stock markets in general: now there is 24.2% optimistic (from 22.7%).
More than half expect a decrease in AEX
Exactly a quarter expects the AEX to rise by 2% or more in the coming month; that percentage was 21.9. However, more than half still expect a fall of 2% or more.
It looks a bit brighter in the longer term, according to respondents. 44.6% expect a decline of 3% or more for the next six months, compared to 51% in early July.
Bull Bear Indicator
The IEX Bull / Bear Indicator, the sum of all survey questions, has slightly improved: from 46.2 last month to 46,5 now (50 is neutral, above is bullish and below is bearish).
All expectations in a row
The full results of the IEX Bull / Bear Survey for August are as follows (in brackets the score for July):
- Very optimistic: 6% (from 6.7%)
- Optimistic: 20.6% (what 19%)
- Neutral: 19.4% (was 17.9%)
- Pessimistic: 33.8% (which is 34%)
- Very pessimistic: 20.1% (from 22.4%)
Stock markets in general
- Very optimistic: 4.6% (from 5.2%)
- Optimistic: 18.1% (what 19%)
- Neutral: 21.2% (was 23.8%)
- Pessimistic: 38.7% (which is 34.5%)
- Very pessimistic: 17.3% (from 17.4%)
AEX next month
- Up: 25% (from 21.9%)
- Neutral: 23.2% (was 29.5%)
- Down: 51.8% (from 54%)
AEX next six months
- Up: 36.1% (from 29.5%)
- Neutral: 19.3% (was 19.5%)
- Down: 44.6% (from 51%)
Stock choices August
What do investors expect from individual stocks this month? What is striking is that ABN Amro is among the best this time, and also immediately number 1. Galapagos and Ahold Delhaize have been fixed values in the left row in recent months. Prosus has disappeared and has to make way for Just Takeaway and ASML, who share fourth place.
We find Shell and ING this month among the floppers instead of the top where they usually are. Just like last month, Unibail-Rodamco and Randstad are among the stocks with the least performance expected. ArcelorMittal has disappeared from the right-hand row.
|Toppers August||To vote||Floppers augustus||To vote|
|Ahold Delhaize||+45||Royal Dutch Shell||-33|
|Just Eat Takeaway/ASML||+35||ING||-27|
This time, 612 participants completed the survey, for which we thank you very much.
The IEX Editor consists of a team of content managers, journalists and analysts, with over 100 years of experience in producing and publishing investment information and opinions. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments. Editorial staff may hold positions in one or more of the listed funds. Click here for an overview of their investments.