You know what it is “Thucydides trap”? It is the fashion game in the chanceries and diplomacy, war games section, intelligence and general rehearsals of the future, admitted and not granted that the past has something to teach us. We are talking about the possible war between China e United States. It will be? There will not be? Why do we talk about it? Because three things happened. The first: the director ofFbi Christopher Wray, a handsome young man of eloquence, declared the Chinese communist government the public enemy of American society. He stressed that it refers only to the communist government of Beijing and not to the millions of Chinese who happily frequent America, not to mention the Chinese Hong Kong and of Taiwan who for Americans are like brothers. His message last Tuesday can be summarized as follows: the China it is attacking American citizens, businesses, the economy, military structures and freedoms, and must be stopped. The FBI – said the Office – deals only with internal facts and is not there Cia, which deals only with foreign countries.
But Wray hinted at the risks facing both Hong Kong, where there has been a Chinese coup d’état that violates the fifty-year pact on the privileges of the former British colony (“One State, two regimes”), which is causing a stir. even the government of UK. Another question: do you know what i am “Five Eyes”?, the five eyes? In the 1950s, in the face of the inevitable dismemberment of the British Empire, a contact organization was established between only the English-speaking peoples: Americans, Canadians, English, Australians and New Zealanders. The group of the “Five Eyes” who is very worried today because Australia is under a stringent attack by Beijing that buys all its companies, corrupts its politicians, intimidates its military. Reference TV series: A secret City. It is not bad and gives an idea.
Second event, the most serious although not much talked about: the South China Sea has been invaded by a myriad of artificial islands transformed into super-technological military bases that dominate a sea route through which more than half of the entire commercial traffic passes world. L’Him-her-it has so far wronged China which claims to move the limit of territorial waters at its discretion from these metal islands. But to this legal defeat the Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed its logical argument: “If it is called the South China Sea, it will also mean that it is a Sea of Southern China, or not?”.
The third event is the Covid: The United States claims to have shown the world all the evidence that certifies Beijing’s responsibility for keeping the outbreak, epidemic explosion, hidden for many weeks, causing the world to lose hundreds of thousands of victims. When they asked the director of the FBI what he thought was the current state ofCovid epidemic in China, he replied that nobody knows because China has always manipulated and continued to manipulate data and therefore America does not consider the Chinese declarations on the epidemic reliable, an opinion that dramatized by announcing the exit from theWHO which according to Washington is in the hands of the Chinese.
Let’s go back to the Greek historian Thucydides and his “trap”. It was the Peloponnesian war between Athens and Sparta which was fought about two thousand and four hundred years ago. Eventually Sparta won, but the entire Greek political system collapsed forever. Second Thucydides, the war broke out when too many began to wonder if a war would really break out, although no one really wanted this war. But by dint of discussing it, war imposed itself on every reasonable idea by imposing war. Could we be in a similar situation today? According to Thucydides, Sparta had for decades been the leading city that had created the development conditions for the whole Greek world, thanks to its commercial and military organization and cultural leadership.
Athens grew thanks to Sparta to become the emerging city not only for economic and military competitiveness, but also for intellectual production. In Sparta they became nervous, as happened to the Romans for Carthage and the Athenians felt provoked. So, according to the Greek historian, a terrible and useless war broke out because too many believed it inevitable. It is also worth mentioning the theatrical piece by Jean Giraudoux The Trojan War will not take place, but even more the absurdity of the First World War which exploded for a series of Thucydides traps. It was still seven years before the outbreak of that war, when the English king Edward VII he asked his prime minister why his government had so much trouble with his grandson Wilhelm that he had become a German emperor but had grown up as an Englishman in England and considered “blood and flesh” blood of his blood, when it was quite evident, for the king of England that the real enemy ofBritish empire were the United States of America. Isn’t it amazing? Already in 1812 British and Americans had fought each other well after independence and now – at the beginning of the 20th century – the current sentiment in the English Empire was a deep resentment for the United States even experienced by the young Winston Churchill, an American mother and convinced that a war with the Americans was very likely. But Thucydides worked differently.
To serve the king, the prime minister asked the owner of the Foreign Office who did real imperial politics, so that a war with the Germany ed Eyre Crow, the foreign minister replied with a memorandum for the king, later considered the manifesto of the “Thucydides trap”: Germany had to consider herself the enemy to fight with sooner or later because not only was she creating the strongest continental army but also a military fleet that constituted an existential threat to England, just as Napoleon’s fleet had been. China is building the largest and most modern military fleet of all time. King Edward died and the American president came to his funeral Theodor Roosevelt (uncle of Franklin Delano and far-right man of action) e Wilhelm emperor of Germany and nephew of the king of England.
The American President asked the German emperor if he intended to renounce the fleet, and he replied that he did not think about it at all and that on the other hand he saw favorably an American fleet on the Atlantic, in competition with the English one. But he also explained in his snobbish “posh” English, to feel himself English to the core and not to understand the hostility of his parent, just because he, like every other emperor or president, liked to have a military fleet. The historian Graham Allison, dell’Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affair, has recently published a study on all the “Thucydides’ Traps” that have occurred in the past 500 years and ended in an avoidable war. Statistics therefore show that “the Trojan war” will probably take place, precisely because everyone says they want to avoid it. All the actors are aggravating their assumptions.
China raises its hands up Hong Kong and is about to do it on Taiwan as well United States place their Navy in the South China Sea, while in the States theFbi performs rounds of arrests between Americans considered corrupt by the Chinese, with the Chinese reacting with anti-American campaigns, each of the two sides stressing that human relations between the two peoples have never been better, pity that the governments are so criminal and stubborn. The FBI maintains that half of the American population should now be regarded as actively or passively Chinese and that vigorous steering and lashing is needed to protect American businesses, freedoms, life and autonomy, although the China cannot live without selling to Americans their own Apple iPhones which are made in China and which the Chinese wouldn’t know what to do with them.
Are we or are we not in the “Thucydides Trap” again? Those who support it think that the United States is jealous of Chinese growth and that it does not tolerate the rush of Beijing towards the primacy in the ranking of powers. This current of thought would be pressing on White House to make Trump consider the possibility of some highly restrictive action – not necessarily military in the old way of bombs and missiles – to warn Beijing that the limit has been exceeded.
This current is represented by the director of the FBI who explained with long documentation that the United States does not fear the Chinese technological capabilities, but the practice of theft of intellectual material, academic corruption, blackmail, the acquisition of American companies after being emptied of their contents brought to China and of the massive electronic occupation of the United States by the China through the Apps that allow you to know in real time the opinions, actions, assets, perspectives and passwords of each individual American citizen, with a mass of billions of data stored in Chinese “clouds”. Trump is like Saint Anthony in the desert, tempted by the demon of the war whom he has so far wanted to avoid by chasing Bannon, the Manesque councilor. We are in mid-July and will vote on November 4: just over a hundred days to get out of prison or remain trapped. The fact that the FBI has come out in the open with all the fuss is a point for the trap. The reluctance of the zazzeruto Donald, one point less. Fingers crossed.
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