In all European chancelleries, a secret game goes crazy that does not take the outcome of the US presidential election in November for granted: to win you have to identify which will be the “October Surprise” chosen by Donald Trump to turn the election vigil in his favor. The bets of the bettors are numerous, but by far in the head in the favors of those who understand it is the hypothesis of a brief military clash between the US and Iran. Follow an improbable nuclear agreement with North Korea, the fall of Maduro in Venezuela, the military withdrawal from Afghanistan (already well under way despite the Taliban attacks), Ukraine where the lawyer Giuliani continues to follow the « track »of Biden’s son.
But none of these valid scenarios can count on the very particular circumstances that Iran says. A brief summary: 1) the 2015 Iranian anti-nuclear treaty provides for the end of the embargo on non-atomic weapons in October 2020; 2) therefore in October there will be a vote at the UN, and at least Russia will veto the extension of the embargo; 3) but a single country is also allowed to proceed on its own behalf, and the US embargo will certainly extend it; 4) for internal reasons (the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guards), Iran will have to react, probably with some military action in the Gulf; 5) the White House will then be able to respond with limited clashes and without American casualties (drones and cruise missiles can provide this).
A mini-war, but capable of transforming Donald Trump into the classic “Commander in Chief” that in America, whatever the state of public health and even that of unemployment, usually obtains the majority of the consents. This is the episode that highly confidential channels between geopolitical analysts take for granted. In other words: Trump can still win if he shows up at the polls in uniform.
July 2, 2020, 8:25 pm – modified on July 2, 2020 | 21:09
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