Summer 2020 upset, by European and Italian Weather Center

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We have published a comment dedicated to the weather report with validity 30 days released by the Air Force with our premise. But since this is a period of particular interest for those who can take advantage of the time to be outdoors, we have chosen to check, and compare the same trend line, also the projections of the European Weather Center.

In the present case, the European Weather Center pushes his forecast up to 46 days, therefore well beyond the 30 days of Italian Weather Center, however we have fixed attention to 30 days, used the latest issue of the mathematical model ECMWF.

Here is what the two Weather Centers indicate. The texts were created by the author of the article.

ITALIAN MILITARY AIR FORCE – 13 – 19 July 2020

Atmospheric stability, with less rainfall than average in Central and Northern Italy. But colder air will arrive which will determine thermal values ​​even below the average on this area. The thermal drop will also occur in the Adriatic.

European Weather Center

The forecast appears similar to that of the Italian Air Force, but looking at the details of the European model, we see that towards the end of the forecast period, warm North African air will tend to go towards Sardinia. Then the cooling effects will cease.

ITALIAN MILITARY AIR FORCE 20 – 26 July 2020

No substantial change, with the pluviometric and thermal values ​​which overall are in line with the averages for the period. In short, summer weather all in all average.

European Weather Center

Tendency to increase in temperature, especially in Northern Italy, where the period with negative thermal anomalies will end. The very long term mathematical model does not perceive any heat waves. However, the average thermal anomaly in Northern Italy is expected, as an average up to 2 ° C.

Thunderstorms in the Alps will resume vigor. But nothing exceptional.

In the rest of Italy, summer weather, temperatures close to the average, with a tendency to be slightly above in Tuscany, Umbria and the Marches. Some thunderstorms could occur in the Apennines of Abruzzo and Molise.

ITALIAN MILITARY AIR FORCE July 27 – August 02 2020

The third week shows a trend in line with the climatological average. There will be rather dry weather in southern Italy, but in these parts it is also normal for this to happen at this time of year.

European Weather Center

Summer weather, with the variant, compared to other years, of the transit of humid air flows that from the Alpine regions, in a more limited form, affect the rest of Northern Italy, and then the central Adriatic.

With regard to temperatures, they could drop slightly, as an average, compared to the previous period. The values ​​should be very little above average.

ITALIAN MILITARY AIR FORCE 03 – 09 August 2020

In the last week, an increase in atmospheric pressure on the ground will increase the chance of having good weather. The temperature should be in line with the average of the period, except to show an above average signal along the central Tyrrhenian regions.

European Weather Center

Increase in storm activity in the Alpine regions, thunderstorms scattered throughout the rest of Northern Italy, but in a context of summer weather.

The temperature could rise again, and go between 1 and 2 ° C above the average.

IN CONCLUSION

The trend line of the two weather centers is not very different. In the first, our analysis is based on schematic data and short comments, while on the European weather center on the availability of extensive information.

Summer 2020 looks very different from those of recent years, with heat waves, if anything lightning-quick and short-lived, nothing to compare with the deleterious heat we had in 2019, when peaks of over 40 ° C occurred even in the Alpine valleys and in the Po Valley.

The rainfall would seem to be not excessive, taking into account that where they are expected, in the summer they occur.

In short, we will have an old-fashioned summer season, so it would seem, except for surprises. Regarding the lightning waves of heat, we want to highlight that they could also cause really excessive heat phases. North Africa is a furnace.

Furthermore, the disturbances that we have seen reaching Italy, could generate boosters of hot air from Africa, and this is what we underline in various insights.

We remind you that weather forecasts with validity up to 5 days have greater reliability, while this decreases as we move away over time.

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https://www.meteogiornale.it/news/2020/07/stravolgimento-estate-centro-meteo-italiano-ed-europeo/

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