Presidential ballot in Poland, exit poll: head to head between Duda and challenger Trzaskowski


WARSAW – It could be a handful of votes to decide the fate of Poland, which called thirty million voters for the second round of the presidential election today. According to the exit polls conducted by Ipsos, he is a tight head to head: the outgoing populist president Andrzej Duda he would get 50.4% of the vote, while the liberal and pro-European challenger, the current mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, 49.6%. The figure may be less reliable than usual, given that voting by post was also allowed, due to coronavirus. It is likely that only tomorrow the winner’s name will be known.Duda had taken the lead in the first round on 28 June with 43.5% of the preferences, while Trzaskowski had placed second with 30.46% of the votes.



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At stake are very different scenarios for the future of the country, how different are the profiles of the contenders, who only have in common the age: 48 years. The outgoing president, law studies behind him, married with a daughter, is a populist who grew up in the Kaczynski entourage and today focuses on traditional values ​​and on the national pride of the Poles.Trzaskowski, two children, is instead a convinced Europeanist, who in tolerance for the other and respect for minorities sees real chances for the development of full democracy in his country.

Duda is supported by the conservative party Law and Justice (Pis) of leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, as well as by the government of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki; the mayor of Warsaw, who started his political experience in the city council of the city 12 years ago, and was then MEP and deputy foreign minister, is supported by the civic Coalition, the largest opposition party, and by local governments, which they see in him the last chance to save Poland from Pis’s attempts to centralize power.

To support Duda, the entire state apparatus was set in motion: the rallies, as well as by him, were also organized by several members of the government, which in the meantime suspended the sessions (the last was held on June 16 ); public media have become central to Duda’s election propaganda. “Our choice is between an extreme left-wing ideology on the one hand, the family and patriotism on the other,” announced the main Polish TV news two days ago, TVP.

And last Saturday, in full electoral silence imposed by the law, each voter received a government message via sms in which he remembered that even the over sixties and pregnant women could vote, without having to queue.

According to surveys, Duda is more popular among the elderly, who, however, in the first round, because of the coronavirus, stayed at home; only a few made use of the vote by correspondence. “But now we no longer need masks,” said the prime minister in a recent rally to push people to go to the polling stations although the virus does not give up at all (only 370 new people were infected in the country today).

The Church has also taken sides in favor of the outgoing president: the archbishop of Krakow Marek Jedraszewski has launched an appeal for the faithful to choose the candidate “who follows Christian values”, while Radio Maryja interviewed the leader of Pis, who raised the bogeyman of a possible opening to euthanasia in the event that Trzaskowski wins.

The mayor of Warsaw, on the other hand, has invited for his part to leave aside “conflicts and lies” and look to the future. His seemed a younger, different language, conveyed a lot by social networks. Trzaskowski did not participate in the public TV debate but organized another one, inviting representatives from different media. The wife Malgorzata promised to deal with women’s rights.

The latest poll published by TVP he indicated Duda as the winner with 50.72% of the votes against 49.28% of Trzaskowski. For the other poll by Ibris instead Trzaskowski would be in the lead with 47.4% against 45.7% of Duda. You just have to wait for one to understand who chose the Poles.

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