Polls: the winning center-right with every electoral system, but Fi can be decisive. With the proportional Renzi outside Parliament

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If we went back to the polls today center united would have the majority in Parliament, regardless of the electoral system chosen. The weight of Come on Italy, while who has to look at barrier thresholds is Matteo Renzi: right now in the case of a pure proportional her Italia Viva it would not even be able to exceed the 3 percent ceiling. These are some of the conclusions reached by the survey conducted by Nando Pagnoncelli on Corriere della Sera, simulating a return to the polls based on the voting intentions from 2 May to 9 July: therefore with the League al 25,5%, the Pd to 20% and the M5s to 18.1%, then FdI (16.4%), Forza Italia (7.7%) and Action (3%).

The forecast takes into consideration four scenarios: the variables concern both the electoral law, which will be discussed again by July 27 in the House, both the cut of parliamentarians, subject of a referendum scheduled for September 20 and 21. In the first scenario, with the current Rosatellum (which provides for a majority share) and without reduction of the elected members, the center-right would have 391 Members and 201 senators: Lega and Fratelli d’Italia would be enough to form a majority. The second scenario instead hypothesizes, unlike the first, a pre-ballot alliance between centrosinista and M5s: in that case the predominance of the center-right would be reduced, but in any case it would guarantee Salvini and allies a peaceful margin to govern.

The context changes in the third scenario, which provides for the transition to the electoral law called Germany (pure proportional) and the approval of the cut of the parliamentarians. In this case, highlights Pagnoncelli, Come on Italy would be decisive in the formation of a government, given that Lega and FdI together would stop at 191 seats (out of 400) in the Chamber and 94 (out of 200) in the Senate. The threshold of 5% national or 15% regional would only allow parliament to enter parliament 6 political forces. In the fourth scenario, with the threshold lowered to 3%, Action by would also make it Carlo Calenda, while Renzi would still risk being left out of Parliament. The overall picture, on the other hand, would not change compared to the third scenario.

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