All the eight regions of the South have a higher number of pensions than those employed and only three southern provinces have a positive balance, that is, more active workers than pensions paid: Teramo, Ragusa and Cagliari. In the North, however, the only region in difficulty is Liguria, which has all 4 provinces with a negative balance and Friuli Venezia Giulia which has a zero balance. In the center, on the other hand, Umbria and Marche are also bad.
«The overtaking has taken place in the last few months – notes the head of the Cgia Studies Office, Paolo Zabeo -. After the coronavirus explosion, in fact, a decline in active workers followed. And with more pensions than employees, workers and self-employed. In the future, it will not be easy to guarantee the sustainability of social security spending, which currently exceeds 293 billion euros per year, equal to 16.6 percent of GDP. With empty cradles and an increasingly high average age of the population, in the coming decades we will have a less innovative, less dynamic society with a constantly decreasing level and quality of internal consumption ».
Just the progressive aging of the Italian population will be a big problem to deal with. “In recent years, entrepreneurs have been looking for highly qualified personnel or figures characterized by low levels of skills,” highlights the secretary of the CGIA, Renato Mason. If for the first the difficulties of finding are structural due to the disconnect that in some areas of the country has been created between school and the world of work, the second, however, are jobs that often our young people, however less and less many refuse to occupy and are only partially covered by foreigners. ” A situation that, Mason continues, “with the economic depression at the door, could take on smaller dimensions, although in the future the difficulty of matching the demand and supply of labor will remain a difficult question to solve”.
The most problematic situations are recorded in areas where the average age is more advanced. At the regional level, the highest level is found in Liguria (48.46 average years), followed by Friuli Venezia Giulia (47), Piedmont (46.54), Tuscany (46.52) and Umbria (46.49). At the provincial level, however, the “oldest” reality in Italy is Savona (48.85 average years). Followed by Biella (48.70), Ferrara (48.55), Genoa (48.53) and Trieste (48.39). The youngest, however, are Bolzano (42.30), Crotone (42.18), Caserta (41.35) and Naples (41.31).
However, the issue of population aging is not only an Italian problem, but concerns the vast majority of the most economically advanced countries. Japan and Germany, for example, have demographic indicators very similar to ours. 80% of the over 65s live in the 20 most developed economies which together produce 85% of world GDP. In emerging countries, on the contrary, the cohort at full working age (30-55 years) increases at a faster rate than the capacity of the local economic system to create jobs.
The effects of aging populations do not only concern healthcare expenditure and the sustainability of the pension system, but also the structure of consumption itself. In particular, those of over 60 are on average higher than those of under 30 in the food, housing and health sector. But in all other sectors the gap is to the benefit of the younger demographic classes which, however, are contracting fearfully. «Investing to encourage births, unfortunately, is a choice that many governments do not like, often by virtue of a banal statistical calculation, considering that precisely the declining demographic trend requires more and more resources in favor of the electorally most relevant part of the population – he concludes la Cgia-. But the temptation to rent is per se an obvious indicator of decline and defeat. ”