The parties on the field
Yesterday, the Cassa di Risparmio di Cuneo Foundation, the first shareholder of Ubi with a 5.9% stake, confirmed its no to the offer and entrusted President Domenico Genta with the task of continuing “in the preliminary and evaluation activities” together with the advisor SocGen and the other shareholders gathered in the “Car”, the reference shareholder committee. A hard core that collects 19 percent of the shares and had immediately sided against the proposed agreement, defined “unacceptable and inadmissible”.
The domino effect
Pending the Antitrust verdict, expected for the weekend, the scenario has started to change. The Banca del Monte di Lombardia Foundation has given President Aldo Poli a full mandate to manage the game and evaluate “without prejudice” the institution’s proposal led by Carlo Messina: 10 Ubi shares for 17 Intesa titles. Poli, who is also vice-president of Cattolica – another protagonist of the CAR – voted in favor of the transfer to the PSO of the 1% stake of the Veronese company, announced two days ago. A move, sources close to the pact explain, dictated by “own reasons” and which does not preclude different evaluations by the Foundation. Pavia, which brings together the Board of Directors and steering committee on Friday, will decide on the convenience of the offer “with a view to enhancing its assets and mission”. Even Cuneo, which is faced with a territory divided between different, even political, thrusts (the League, according to Senator Giorgio Bergesio’s voice, asked for “a serious and transparent confrontation with the local community”) will continue to deepen an offer that , “as currently proposed, has elements that do not meet expectations”. And, he explains in a note “any further element for the most appropriate evaluations will be brought to the attention of the General Council at the next meeting”. Analysts hypothesize that the Cuneo-based institution is waiting for a possible, possible, relaunch.
What the market says
Yesterday, while the analysts of Equita, which Intesa has deployed among its advisors, illustrated the ten reasons for joining the offer, the umpteenth lunge of Victor Massiah arrived. In an interview with the Financial Times, the Ubi administrator said that if the merger went through “it would result in a sort of monopoly and I don’t think it’s appropriate”. The banker said he “understands that in some countries it is desirable for large banks to take over smaller rivals, but while Spain, France or the United Kingdom have several large banks, Italy has only one.”