Holidays upset by the climate: we will go to the beach in Northern Europe – La Stampa


Summer holidays by the sea of ​​Siberia, on the beach in Sicily and Sardinia in March instead of August, goodbye to the race of the Germans to the Italian coasts. So climate change will transform tourism in the next thirty years, according to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute, which in its report “A Mediterranean basin without a Mediterranean climate?” thinks about the sector’s prospects between now and 2050.

In the days when the heat beats anxiety from Covid and the Italian beaches are populating again, McKinsey Global Institute gives operators advice on how to make their business work in the long run: dear hoteliers, get ready to welcome customers out of season by the sea , because the beach vacation will soon be more beautiful in spring than in summer. Not only that: think more and more about congress tourism and get used to considering your competitors as colleagues from seaside resorts in Northern Europe. Because for many it will become attractive to swim in Siberia, where in the past few days it was 38 degrees, instead of in Italy.

Average temperature rising by another degree and a half, reduction up to a quarter of the available water, doubling of the deaths caused by the heat and of the annual days with more than 37 degrees, which will become at least 60 per year in southern Spain, 30 long the Turkish coasts and will rise from 15 to 50 in Sharm El Sheikh: in McKinsey’s analysis, we move towards the seasons of beach holidays anticipated from summer to spring. Here then the whole sector will be called to reorganize itself to welcome and incentivize – perhaps with promotions – the visitors we would call today out of season.

Attention in particular to tourists coming from Northern Europe: for them – market surveys say – going beyond 37 degrees is unbearable, so you will have to be ready to welcome them away from summer. Otherwise the German and Dutch families who today populate the Italian coasts will choose Northern Europe, whose beaches instead will be much more attractive when the temperature has risen by a few degrees. In short, the competition will come from locations today off the radar. Although, of course, the two great levers of Italian tourism will remain active: the welcoming capacity and the landscape and cultural offer. “But diversification will be the key”, explain the experts: here then the Italian seaside resorts “will have to specialize also in congress tourism, to ensure alternative sources of income”.

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