A default of over 19 billion euros. This is the prediction of some financial analysts should the withdrawal of the concession to Aspi trigger and thus justify the collapse of the Atlantia share on the stock exchange. In case of revocation, the effect for Autostrade per l’Italia would be that of an immediate bankruptcy of the company. Indeed, due to art. 35 of the Milleproroghe Decree (Legislative Decree 162/2019), the resources for the repayment of almost 10 billion of total debt. The impact would have an impact on the repayment of 9 billion euro of Atlantia debt (which controls 88% of Autostrade per l’Italia’s capital and also guarantees about 5 billion of the subsidiary’s debt).
The consequences on the markets
The total amount of debt in default (over 19 billion) would have serious consequences on the European bond and banking markets given that most of the debt is represented by listed securities held by large international debt investors, as well as by large European financial institutions ( European Investment Bank) and Italian (Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Banca Intesa, Unicredit,), also subject to LTRO loans from the European Central Bank. Moreover, Autostrade per l’Italia also issued a retail bond loan (for 750 million) held by approximately 17,000 small Italian savers. This would destroy one of the few leading Italian groups in the world, present on 24 countries.
The company’s capital is also held by large foreign investors
Furthermore, the capital of Autostrade per l’Italia is held by large international investors, such as the Allianz insurance group (7% of the capital together with its partners), as well as the Chinese sovereign fund Silk Road Fund (5% of the capital), as well as by Atlantia, a company among the “blue chips” of the Italian Stock Exchange which has over 40,000 shareholders, including the Singapore GIC sovereign wealth fund (8.1% of the share capital), the Cassa di Risparmio di Torino Foundation (4.8% of the share capital) and the largest international institutional investors in the world (mainly management companies from the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and Australia) and Italian savers. A scenario that would create a single precedent, totally discouraging any new foreign investment in Italy.
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