Autostrade, the price of change of control: “5 to 8 billion will be needed” – La Stampa


ROMA. The premise that everyone, financial analysts, brokers and possible new investors, is the same: first the issue of revocation of the concession is defused and, above all, the question of tariffs is sorted out and then the next steps can be considered. Or the change of governance. Because, even if toll revenue drops, Autostrade will always remain a good investment, perfectly in line with the requirements of institutions such as Cassa Depositi, funds that invest in infrastructure as well as large insurance companies, which before choosing if aiming for a company requires business visibility and clear financial plans and equally reliable (as well as substantial) returns. “If the situation is clarified and Atlantia finds an agreement with the government – a source close to the dossier assures – it is possible that the change of ownership takes place very quickly, if not even sudden”.

Ponte Genova: Toninelli: “P revochi concession to Benetton and Salvini taccia, in the Conte 1 government opposed revocation”

Yes, but how much is society worth? How much do you have to put on the plate to have 51% of Aspi and reduce the Benettons around 30 once they have obviously acquired their consent?

In the contacts of the past weeks between CDP and Atlantia, according to indiscretions, it seems that we reasoned on a range between 8 and 12 billion euros; for the government, or at least that part that aims to force the negotiation if not even to defenestrate the family of Ponzano, instead it does not go beyond 7-8. According to Marco Opipari analyst at Fidentiis, “assuming a 5% tariff cut the value of Aspi should be 9 billion” so “88% today in the hands of Atlantia would in turn be worth about 8”. In his opinion, however, to hypothesize a capital increase to be borne by the new shareholders in order to surpass in this way the share of Atlantia without having to buy securities directly from this company, is “a senseless operation”, because it should be done at a higher figure to 8 billion. While if more simply there was a sale of the control package held by Atlantia, hypothesis hitherto rejected by the veto of the 5 Stars, it would be enough to invest about 4.5 billion.

The consortium
A hypothetical consortium composed of Cdp, Unipol, Generali, Poste Vita, together with an unspecified international investment fund (such as Macquarie), which could take the field in place of F2i, and among other things it would have the advantage of removing all the operation the label of nationalization, according to some financial sources, could be willing to invest between 5 and 7 billion.

Autostrade, De Falco: “I am for the forfeiture of the concession”

In short, the Autostrade match should be worth between 5 and 8 billion euros, depending on how the tariffs will really end. These are considerable figures but still far from those set 2 years ago when the Germans of Allianz and the Chinese fund Silk Road entered the capital of Aspi, paying 10% of the quotas for 1.48 billion euros and thus attributing a value of 14.8 billion to the entire capital of Autostrade.

«Today without Aspi convention is worth zero, because the company is the convention», explains another analyst who wants to remain anonymous. «Reading the newspapers these days, however – he adds – I don’t see any big news: it was like this 6 months ago, 12 months ago and it was like that 18 months ago. If an agreement is not found, which may even have already been signed but is kept confidential, it is useless to fantasize about capital increases and the transfer of shares ».

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How much tolls make

However, more sources confirm that if you can find a square by avoiding the revocation of the concession, even after Aspi has reduced the toll rates and significantly increased the amount of investments as it asked and how it seems it ultimately got the government in this last round of negotiations with the Benettons, the company that has managed half the Italian motorway network since 1998 (3000 km) can still be a good investment. Nothing to do, however, with the pre-Covid and pre-Morandi situation, when as in 2018 (year still affected by the collapse of the bridge over the Polcevra) against 4 billion euros in revenues (of which 3.66 exclusively from tolls) the company sported a net profit of 622 million euros and above all a gross margin that touched even half of the turnover reaching 1.99 billion.

Ponte Morandi, Conte: “Dossier on motorways to be closed by the weekend”

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