US polls dive: what if Trump retires from the race?

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What if Trump were to retire from the race for reconfirmation in the White House? Only three months ago many, even in the democratic field, took for granted a second term of office of the president of the conservative front. Today, with polls that continue to indicate an apparently bottomless collapse of The Donald’s popularity, Republicans now openly declare that they fear a devastating defeat (the Democrat Biden elected by wide margin while the right also loses the Senate, in addition to the House) and there are even those who hypothesize the unthinkable: the drop out, a sudden withdrawal of Trump from the electoral competition.
Even Fox, the ultraconservative network, begins to face this hypothesis, while Charles Gasparino, a financial journalist very well introduced to the republican circles that matter, claims that this hypothesis now discussed by party leaders, although no one talks about it in public.

Why so much alarm? The White House plays down, does not give any credit to the polls that Trump has long labeled as fake news. Moreover, even in 2016 the surveys gave him a loser, and the levels of consensus for the president were low even in winter, when everyone still gave Trump close to re-election.

In recent weeks, however, the survey gap has widened enormously and Trump is now given as a loser with a wide margin on Biden also in the key States (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio) and also in some States that until yesterday seemed to be on his side (Florida, Arizona, the two Carolines). Struck by the fact that even in the conservative stronghold of Texas Trump and Biden appear head to headKarl Rove, a Texan and strategist of Bush’s election victories, argues that if Trump does not change course and does not present a convincing plan for the second term, he will face defeat. According to him, the most reliable surveys are those of Real Clear Politics which in a few days have seen the national gap between Trump and Biden widen from 5 to 9 percentage points.

Trump really cornered? The vote is over four months away, the president has time to recover. The feeling that i Conservative media sound the alarm to shake Trump who cannot set up an orderly electoral campaign, continuing with his angry tweets that white fundamentalists like, but make him lose support in all other social groups. Fox is also doing some sort of electric shock to conservatives who are moving away from Trump. The message: After him the flood, in a few months we will be governed by a puppet-president, Biden, who will respond to the orders of the radical left.

What if Trump really retires? There is no precedent, but The Donald has accustomed us to many unprecedented things. If he resigned from office before the Republican convention in August, his delegates would likely pass on to Mike Pence who would become the presidential candidate. Should he renounce in September or October (vote on 3 November), once he has acknowledged that the defeat for him safe, it will be up to the RNC, the organization of the republican party with its delegates, to freely choose another candidate. But an unlikely scenario.

June 30, 2020 (change June 30, 2020 | 14:02)

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