Replicating the pattern that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis and in the hypothesis of a worsening of the school-university transfer rates to the levels of the previous years, Svimez estimates that the decrease in nationally registered students amounts to around 9,500 students of which approximately 6,300 in the South and 3,200 for the Center North.
As of 2020, an estimated 292,000 adults are estimated in the Center-North and around 197,000 in the South, reads the Svimez note by the director Luca Bianchi and Gaetano Vecchione (Svimez – Univ. Federico II Napoli). Estimating the impact of the economic crisis on the school / university transfer rate, Svimez highlights that the previous crisis has shown a high elasticity of this rate to the weakening of household incomes especially in the South: in light of this, a reduction in the continuation rate of 3.6 points in the South and 1.5 in the Center-North.
The data on the school-university transition rate from 1991 to 2020 (estimated 2019 and 2020), show how “in the face of the delay that characterized the 90s, in the early 2000s the South managed to equal and to overcome in 2003 the continuation rate of the Center-North, perhaps thanks – suggests Svimez – to the reform that in those years introduced the 3 + 2 in the Italian university system. Since then, a slow decline in follow-up rates has begun, exacerbated by the 2008-2009 crisis that has led the South to record the lowest school-university rates in the entire euro area. ”
Already the previous economic crisis, that of 2008-2009 which dragged on until 2013, had caused a collapse of university enrollments, especially in the South, highlights the Svimez: between 2008 and 2013 the school-university transition rate in the Mezzogiorno collapsed by 8.3 percentage points, four times the decrease of the Center-North (1.6 points). In a five-year period, members have decreased by over 20 thousand units in the southern regions. Also in the Center-North, the crisis had led to a drop in the rate of continuation of studies (-2 points approximately), but as a result of the growth in graduates, there was no decrease in the overall number of students enrolled. ça recovery of registrations and the transition rate in the period of weak recovery (2013-19) allowed only a partial recovery for the South, still far from the values of 2008, unlike the Center-North which returned to its pre-crisis values. According to the most recent data (2019) the Mezzogiorno still has 12,000
registered less than in 2008 and a passing rate of more than 5 percentage points lower. Conversely, the Center-North has recorded an increase of approximately 30,000 registered students for the entire period and an increase of more than one percentage point in its passage rate.