Unicredit continues the indirect struggle with Intesa Sanpaolo. Where will the bank led by Mustier land?


Although indirectly, Unicredit is playing an important role in the Public Exchange Offer (OPS) launched by Intesa Sanpaolo on UBI Banca. In the midst of the Antitrust investigation on the OPS, in fact, he asked to intervene in the proceedings opened on 11 May by the Antitrust on the operation, as it is for the subjects to whom “a direct, immediate and current prejudice may derive” from the possible consolidation. Unicredit is in the company of Cattolica Assicurazioni, Banca Popolare dell’Emilia Romagna (Bper), Foundation of Monte di Lombardia.

In opening its investigation, the Antitrust Authority stated that if Intesa completed the aggregation with the fourth Italian bank, “the creation or strengthening of a dominant position in some provincial markets for funding, loans to consumer families and producers-small enterprises, medium-large enterprises and public bodies, in managed and managed savings as well as in insurance markets »

It is therefore clear that Unicredit is a disturbing action against a competing bank at a very delicate moment. In fact, the Antitrust Authority could decide, in case, which assets Intesa Sanpaolo should renounce to complete the operation.

At present, the average consensus of analysts is Overweight with an average target price that expresses an underestimation of approximately 11%.

An aspect that we want to highlight before moving on to the graphical and forecasting analysis and the relative strength of Unicredit compared to the banking sector. In the last 30 days, in fact, the performance of Unicredit, the banking sector and the Italian market has been 37%, 28%, 15%, respectively.

Graphical and forecast analysis on Unicredit stock

Unicredit (MIL: UCG) closed the session on June 5, up 4.74% compared to the previous session at € 8.919. It should be noted that the last three weeks have been a bullish explosion that has led the prices from historical lows to the condition that the stock can close the gap opened with the collapse at the beginning of the pandemic.

The prices are therefore directed towards the 1st price target in the € 11.3811 area for an increase of around 30% from the current levels. If the third price target were to be reached, the increase would be around 150%.

Only a daily close below € 8.0617 would undermine the bullish scenario.


Unicredit: bullish projection in progress on the weekly time frame. The blue line represents the running bisector levels; the red line the levels of The New Law of Vibration.


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