The world economy on a rope and the global outlook is very uncertain, says the OECD in the latest update of its Economic Outlook, the Report on growth forecasts. The Italian GDP estimated to fall to -14% in 2020 in the worst case scenario, in front of a second wave of Covid-19 in the autumn. In the base scenario, on the other hand, the collapse of the gross domestic product drops by 11.3% this year. But public debt also explodes up 170% in the event of a new epidemic. Both scenarios are very different from those foreseen by the OECD in early March, before the start of the lockdown, when the Paris organization, in the face of a growth that had been 0.3% in 2029, estimated for Italy has zero growth in 2020 and a 0.5% recovery in 2021.
As for the world economy, the OECD expects a 6% contraction in 2020 in the best scenario and 7.6% with a second wave of the virus. But Europe to pay an unprecedented price. In France and Great Britain it is even worse than in Italy. The OECD estimates a drop of up to 14.1% across the Alps in the worst-case scenario and 11.4% in the best-case scenario, while in the UK forecasts indicate -14% and -11.5% respectively. The descent of the GDP in Germany is more contained than according to the Paris Organization will mark -8.8% in the worst case, and 6.6% in the base scenario. In the United States preparing for the vote to elect the president in November, estimates report respectively -8.5% and -7.3%, compared to the + 3% promised by Donald Trump until January.
These are numbers that indicate how the Covid pandemic -19, an unprecedented global health crisis in human memory, has unleashed the most serious economic recession for almost a century now and is causing enormous damage to health, work and health. well-being of people, reads the OECD’s Economic Outlook. The blockade measures introduced by most governments have been able to slow the spread of the virus and reduce the number of deaths, but they have also frozen business in many sectors, widened inequalities, stopped education and undermined confidence in future. Now we experience the relaxation of restrictions, but the path to economic recovery remains highly uncertain and vulnerable to a second wave of infections, warns the Organization. With or without a second epidemic, the consequences will be serious and lasting.
The estimates? In 2021, the OECD expects a 5.5% recovery for Italy in the baseline scenario and 7.7% if there is a new wave of the virus.