Come on Italy it is the true needle of the center-right balance. This is what emerges from the simulation conducted by the Ipsos Institute of Nando Pagnoncelli and illustrated in today’s edition of Corriere della Sera. From the coronavirus emergency Silvio Berlusconi will come out with a rediscovered leading role: four months ago, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia could have conquered by themselves the absolute majority in the Chamber, thanks to the 205 virtual seats out of 400 left after the cut of the parliamentarians (and in the hypothesis, not of the all taken for granted, that the Germanicum electoral system is adopted).
Compared to then, the League of Matteo Salvini however, it fell from 32 to 24.3 per cent: a drop that was not fully absorbed by Giorgia Meloni, which has grown by 4 points (16.2) and is now ready to put the arrow on the M5S. The percentages translated into seats in the Chamber mean that the Carroccio has gone from 149 to 112 potential seats, while FdI from 56 to 74: in total there are 186 seats that would not be enough to have an absolute majority. And this is where the Cav comes back into play, which compared to February went from 6.5 to 7.4 percent, that is, from 29 to 33 seats: just those who serve the center right to have control of the Chamber.
This means that Forza Italia is fundamental in the coalition, but be careful because the 33 blue deputies can also tempt the center-left which, together with the 5 stars, reaches a maximum of 179 virtual seats. This means that Berlusconi can shift the balance in one direction or the other: in spite of the Cav’s openings towards the current government, in particular on European politics, however, the scenario in which Forza Italia betrays the center-right precisely in the when he can finally go to the government without compromise with the 5 Stars or anyone.