Winds of war on the borders of China, which do not promise anything good for the stability of the Asian continent. Middle-earth has to defend its interests on two fronts due to tensions with India and Japan.
The incident on the India-China border last week, twenty dead, continues to keep the tension between the two countries high, despite relaxing steps. Today the internet meeting between Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Important initiative given that the two have not met since February 2017.
The summit was also attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who in some way mediated, although he refused this role explaining that the two countries have the ability to manage their critical issues (Dainik Baskhar). The meeting revived the relationship between the three, after the postponement of the trilateral meeting between the presidents of Russia, India and China scheduled for the same date.
The summit between diplomats was held in parallel with meetings between senior army officers on both sides. A combined order that had the result of cooling the hearts (Timesofindia): the duelists agreed to withdraw the military forces from the disputed border (Dainik Jagran).
Understanding fragile, given that India has armed its border troops giving them “complete freedom of action”, unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement previously stipulated with China, which provided for a demilitarized border (so much so that the skirmish deaths were were caused by a clash with bare hands).
According to the Global Times, this is a wound to the peace of the region, given that a possible future clash, unfortunately possible, “will evolve into a military conflict” between the two countries.
According to the GT, and not wrongly, with this decision, the Indian President Narendra Modi intended to support the nationalist wave caused by the accident, but does nothing but throw further fuel on the fire.
The GT reminds the other side of the difference in strength between the two countries: India would have everything to lose in a possible conflict.
In reality, in this eventuality, India would have the support of all the western forces that push to incinerate China and who see what is happening between the two countries as a godsend.
The “atomic” conflict between India and China
Precisely for this last factor, the risk that a possible conflict between the two countries will develop in the first nuclear conflict since the post-war period is high. These forces do not care about India, which in this case would be used as a simple vector of a redde rationem with Beijing.
Hence the possibility that push New Delhi to use the atomic arsenal: two or three nuclear bombs on China would eliminate forever the problem of Beijing as a global antagonist of the West, suddenly vaporizing all the dreams of Middle-earth, both as an individual power that as a flywheel of a possible Asian Century.
However, by importing nothing to these forces the consequences for India, which in turn would be incinerated by the Chinese response.
Indeed it would be one less problem, given that the Indian nationalism of which Modi has become an interpreter is not bothering these areas, because India is no longer totally prone to Washington (New Delhi bought the Russian S-400s despite the pressure against the US and has not adhered to the sanctions against Iran …).
The atomic bomb on Pyongyang
Impossible scenario? Maybe. But just look at what is happening in North Korea, where these areas want to start a war at all costs. On this point, we refer to the beautiful article of the National Interest on John Bolton’s obsession with bombing Pyongyang.
A seemingly completely useless conflict for US interests, given the insignificance of North Korea in the global arena (although some propaganda says more).
In reality, this plan has one purpose other than to incinerate North Korea, and not so occult: to trigger an atomic conflict on the borders of China, because a war against Pyongyang would have such an inevitable outcome after its inevitable response to American bombs ( Seoul would be devastated by the North Korean reaction).
It would be inevitable for the US to drop atomic weapons on Pyongyang. And it would be like uncoupling them on China (radiation would spread, devastating the Chinese dream forever).
A madness, of course, but this doctrine has very powerful followers, just think of the weight of John Bolton in US foreign policy, both among the Republicans and among the Democrats.
Trouble from the East for the Dragon
Beyond extreme scenarios, but not impossible for this, the India-China tension finds nourishment in Indian nationalism, but it should be emphasized that in recent times it has also been ridden by opposition forces, closer to the interests of the West, which indeed , and not surprisingly, they outnumber the nationalists in the anti-Chinese controversy.
Finally, it should be noted that trouble also comes for China from the East: Japan has decided to officially identify the islands that the Chinese call Diaoyu as Senkaku.
It is a long-standing controversy and not only a nominal one: both Beijing and Tokyo claim sovereignty. In China Daily, the Dragon’s tough position on the Japanese initiative, which throws more fuel on the fire. For China, it is a siege that reinforces its internal nationalism.