To confirm an already partially rooted consideration was today OECD, who analyzed the situation in the Belpaese more closely, one of the hardest hit (especially economically) by the pandemic.
According to the organization, a second wave of coronaviruses could unleash Italy’s GDP and could lead to a 14% collapse. But that is not all.
The OECD alarm on Italian GDP
The latest OECD analysis dealt with Italy and did so from different points of view. First of all, according to the Organization’s forecasts, if the Belpaese will be able to definitively leave the emergency behind on Italian GDP it will drop by 11.3% in 2020, but will rise by 7.7% in 2021.
Different speech, however, if the Peninsula will be hit by a new wave of infections that could bring down the Gross Domestic Product of 14 percentage points in the current year, for a more limited rebound (of 5.3%) the next.
Not only GDP: eyes on public debt
Also in the event that Italy were to deal with a new wave of coronaviruses, the public debt would end up swelling again and greeting the 134.8% recorded in 2019. The OECD forecasts have spoken clearly and have put the following data in black and white (debt ratio):
- 169.9% in 2020;
- 165.5 in 2021.
More needs to be done
“Emergency measures to deal with the economic fallout from the crisis are justified and should be complete and double efforts to continue an ambitious structural reform program “,
reads the OECD report, which asked to improve access to income support programs, such as the SAFC, while warning against the risks regarding tourism sector.
The current one, on the other hand, is the most serious crisis ever known:
“The 6% reduction in global GDP that we expect in 2021 far exceeds all the reductions that have occurred in the past 60 years since the OECD was created.”
Economic recovery must necessarily pass through a definitive control of the coronavirus.