Ftse Mib at a crossroads: the signal to wait. Eur / Usd short now

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Below is the interview with Antonello Marceddu, an independent trader, to whom we asked some questions on the main stock indices, with particular attention paid to Piazza Affari.

The Ftse Mib is trying to stretch the pace towards the 20,000 area. Do you expect further positive developments in the short term?

Tuesday’s session, when the Ftse Mib scored a good rally, was characterized by good trading volumes, higher than those of the two previous sessions and those of 11 June, when however the market was hit by strong sales .

The Ftse Mib closed the gap left open between 10 and 11 June in the 19.700 / 19.800 area and since Tuesday’s volumes were sufficient to confirm the increase, prices will now point to the highs of 8 June in the 20.400 area. .

It should be noted that the volumes that accompanied the descent that started from these top were interesting but similar to those of the recovery seen on Tuesday.

It is therefore probable that the two-day rally could have sterilized the risk of further falls, but in my opinion, a continuation of the rise is not yet predictable.

The Ftse Mib effectively leaves the door open to two possible scenarios and if on the one hand further climbs are not excluded, on the other the risk of new drops cannot be considered escaped.

Much will depend on the trading volumes because if they remain on the same levels on Tuesday, then there will be a continuation of the upward movement.

If, however, there is no continuation of the recovery, the Ftse Mib could go primarily to close the gap opened on Tuesday close to 19,000 points.

The index is therefore at a crossroads and will have to decide now whether to lengthen the pace towards the 20,000 area, with a probable continuation of the rise, or if on the contrary go to review the 19,000 points and in this second case there will be some doubts about the possibility of assisting to new rises.

The current phase is therefore delicate in the sense that in my opinion it is necessary to navigate on sight.
If we focus on the last bullish vector, and with this I refer to the sessions that led from 17,000 to 20,200-20,400 points, we see that a continuation of the ascent of the Ftse Mib is credible.

On the contrary, if the index does not manage to go further forward, it could go to review the 19,000 area and this could cancel the bullish vector I was talking about before.

The euro-dollar is oscillating around the 1.125 area after the 1.14 retracement. What are the possible scenarios for the next sessions?

Given the trading range that has been created since 4 June to today, it is necessary to see now whether the euro-dollar is in the distribution or accumulation phase.

For the cross we point out the exit of the range explored in the months of April and May, but since the prices have approached the top of March 9 and then go back, we could also be in a distribution phase.

In my opinion, the laterality describes a phase of this type, so I don’t see immediately a continuation of the rise for the euro-dollar which on the contrary could retrace.

We can identify a first target at 1.115, therefore a lower figure of current values.
Below the threshold indicated above, the euro-dollar could be part of the congestion already experienced in the months of April and May.

My idea is that at least for the moment the cross has reached the end of the race and such a prediction will be denied only by an overcoming of area 1.14 / 1.142, the violation of which will immediately project in area 1.15.

Gold remains above $ 1,700 without registering strong moves in either direction. What can you tell us about this asset?

Gold is moving sideways and is in a sort of limbo since it is more or less in the middle of the range between 1,670 and 1,770 dollars.

To move the gold should be some decisive indication that it should come from the stock exchanges, remembering that if the latter go down the gold goes up and vice versa.

At the moment for the yellow metal I do not see great strength in the ascent, so even in this case you surf on sight, it being understood that I do not expect particular ideas upwards in the immediate.

I believe a drop in gold is more likely, which could be close to the median of the Bollinger bands in the $ 1,660 area.



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