The specter of the second wave of the Covid-19 epidemic hovers over some areas of the world, especially in China, but the countries they arouse major concerns they are the ones where the first wave (and where it has not yet reached its peak) like the Brazil, or those where the first wave has turned into a stable curve that does not go down (the notorious plateau or plateau, which we have also had in Italy for not long), like the USA. Another alarm arouses him i African countries, while in Europedespite some ascents, we can speak of outbreaks contained and limited. Certainly the coronavirus has not gone away. Here is an updated look at the map of new infections in the world.
The top 10 countries
Speaking of absolute numbers, the top 10 countries with the highest number of new cases per day I’m: Brazil, USA, India, Russia, Pakistan, Chile, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, For, Bangladesh. We see it below in the third column of TABLE 1 compiled thanks to the site ourworldindata (which in turn uses official sources for the statistics): as of June 17, the daily increase in Brazil was 34,918 cases, in the US 23,705 and in India 10,974.
TABLE 1 – Increase in cases (source ourworldindata)
By grouping instead in a graph (see below, TABLE 2) the first countries with cases that have been growing or not in weeks (like the US) we see the trajectories and states that have made themselves known for a recent climb. Between these Pakistan and Mexico. In absolute numbers we note the Brazil before the USA, which are slightly rising compared to the plateau. There Russia stable while India is growing. Pakistan and Mexico uphill. Then, the comparison with the European countries that have passed the peak for some time whose curve drops, such as Italy and the UK and, below, the new wave of China.
TABLE 2 – Daily cases on the rise
Critical situation India
In relative terms, in TABLE 3 below, we see what the numbers are if the increase is re-parameterized according to the size of the population. The country that grows the most For that he overtook Brazil, on the same line there are instead USA and Russia, followed by Mexico, Pakistan, UK (with a downhill curve) and India.
TABLE 3 – new cases per day for millions of people
The African continent for a long time he had been sheltered from a great wave, instead a week ago he recorded 200,000 cases, but above all to note that it took 98 days to reach 100 thousand cases and only 18 to double to 200 thousandto. If we look at the countries that double the number of infected in less time, among the top 10 in the world we find above all African States: Eritrea (doubled every 4 days), Mauritania (every 8 days), Suriname, then Nepal, Iraq and Benin (every 10 days). Ethiopia, Libya, Yemen and South Africa double in 13 days.
More cases, but fewer deaths?
It is not true that at this stage the cases increase, but proportionately the deaths less. This applies in countries that have passed the peak, probably because they have the epidemic situation most under control. If we take (see TABLE 4 below) the most affected countries and the curve of the new daily deaths (which, remember, photograph the infections of 3 weeks before and in fact constitute the data that goes down last), we find numbers that go up together with the infections: we see it for Brazil, India, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Pakistan. The US is downhill, because it has still peaked in some states. In comparison UK, Italy and Germany are on descending curves.
TABLE 4 – daily deaths
The case of Per
Same goes for deaths reparameterized with respect to the population (see below, TABLE 5): Italy and the UK have had the highest number of deaths in the peak compared to other countries but have now fallen. The countries where deaths are rising are the same ones where cases are rising: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, but most of all India, exponentially growing, and Pakistan. In this graph, separate mention unfortunately deserves the Per, which compared to housing density, the state that worsens most of all in terms of deaths.
TABLE 5 – deaths for millions of people
The trend of the epidemic has different causes and dynamics in each state. And the numbers are then explained.
Latest news from Per
The For has exceeded Italy by number of cases: there are over 240 thousand. And the recorded victims are over 7,200. The lockdown measures were extended until 30 June, while the daily number of new cases (around 3,700) down from the peaks in late May, when there were over 7,000 new cases per day.
The Brazil has recorded 909 new deaths for Covid-19 in the past 24 hours, resulting in a total of 41,828 deaths, a figure that places it as the second Country with the largest number of deaths in the world, surpassing Britain. According to the data collected by the regional health secretariats, there are 25,982 new infections and a total of 828,810, confirming the second position also in number of cases, behind the United States. San Paolo, the most affected city, ordered containers destined for cemeteries, where space is running out. There are early signs of stabilization.
L’India has recorded 12,881 more coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, the greatest daily increase since the beginning of the epidemic. In total, 366,946 have so far tested positive with 12,237 deaths (+334). The surge seems to have originated from the reopening, on June 8, of shopping malls, places of prayer and restaurants. With the return to normal life, 100 thousand people fell ill in one week. New Delhi hospitals are full, as are cemeteries and crematoriums.
Coronavirus victims in Pakistan they have increased by 118 in the past 24 hours, thus raising the pandemic toll to 3,093 deaths. The new positives are instead 5,358, for a total of 160,118 cases. Even in Pakistan it seems to have been the exit from the lockdown to bring new outbreaks, but the government prefers to isolate only the areas where the infections occur, leaving the rest of the population, which has 220 million individuals, free to move. The New York Times in a report he reports that the Pakistani affected by the coronavirus are removed from the hospitals, which simply closed the gates and hung the signs with the word “full”. Doctors and nurses fall ill at alarming rates.
The USA they are a different case: they have states that have passed the peak, such as New York, and others that do not seem to have reached it. All in all we cannot speak of a second wave, but of different departures of the first wave. The general US curve linear and represents a plateau that shows no sign of descending. Cases are increasing in almost half of the States: below are the ones that worry most, in TABLE 6 below compiled by “covidexitstrategy”, crossing a series of official data.
TABLE 6 – The worsening US States (covidexitstrategy source)
Usa, the worst states
The indicative columns are the first and last: in the first the percentage increase of cases every 14 days where almost all are above 100% with a tip of 152% in Arkansas. In the last column the percentage of positive cases found compared to the number of swabs made. They are figures around or above 10%, high numbers if we think that in Lombardy currently this figure for weeks below 1%. Figures that show that the increase in cases it does not depend on the number of tests carried out.
In Russia in the last 24 hours 7,790 new cases of coronavirus have been recorded, thus reaching a total of 561,091. For the second day in a row, therefore, the infections drop below 8 thousand from 30 April. The deaths were 182, for a total of 7,660. The country appears to have reached the plateau and especially in Moscow, the authorities ease the confinement measures and reopen bars, zoos, clubs, museums by the end of the month.
The real second wave that Chinese, given that the country had registered for weeks zero infections. From the first 7 cases to the Xinfadi market in Beijing, we arrived in a week 158 infections connected, while the city continues to strengthen prevention and control measures. There is talk of a second wave because China had certainly ended the first, but for now it would be more correct to speak of hotbed and not even the most relevant in the world among the limited ones. The intervention of the authorities towards the massive closure and officials claim that the outbreak has been brought under control and the number of cases will always be lower (HERE the story of the 52 year old who raised the alarm).
in Europe that other local outbreaks are concentrated. Europe, which recorded 1,460,676 coronavirus cases, 20% of the total, and 170,603 deaths, 42% of global deaths, has peaked in all countries except Poland and Sweden, reports the ECDC, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. The unfinished pandemic and forecasts indicate that an increase in cases is likely in the coming weeks.
These cases are currently controlled: in Germany I’m 657 positive cases of Coronavirus registered since the beginning of the week among employees of a slaughterhouse in the German city of Dortmund (HERE details from our correspondent). The health authorities of the municipality of Guetersloh have put in advance in quarantine about 7 thousand people, including all the workers of the plant, while all the schools and recreational centers in the area have been closed. Angela Merkel, after praising the territorial authorities for the speed with which they were able to carry out the tests, said: We are far from a new exponential growth of the infections in Germany, but from outbreaks like this we see clearly how the virus has not disappeared at all.
Romania and Ukraine
Strong increase in the number of infections in Romania and Ukraine, where the highest number of new infections was registered in a day since the beginning of the epidemic, 758.
Poland and Sweden
Finally Poland and Sweden, Countries that would not have peaked yet: in Poland the infections are driven by the situation of the miners in coal mines. For over two and a half months, at least half of the 300 or 400 daily cases of contagion in Poland have occurred in Silesia, the largest mining area in the country: Sars-CoV-2 has found its ideal habitat in damp and dark tunnels , where men work close together, sweat and share the same air for hours.
TABLE 7 – number of cases per day, Sweden and other countries
Sweden, infections and high deaths
The new bulletin of the SwedenFinally, it marks the overcoming of the threshold of 5 thousand deaths. The total cases are, to date, 54,562. Stockholm has decided to tackle the pandemic with the “Gentle mitigation”, which did not foresee a real lockdown. Recently, epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, director of the “Swedish model” of reaction to the coronavirus, said that, going back, he would have retouched the strategy by making it more stringent. Sweden (which compared to countries like Brazil must be compared with the parameter that takes into account the total population) for daily number of cases it comes just below For and Brazil (see TABLE 7 above) and does not appear to have a stable curve. As regards the deaths for millions of people, the increase places it even higher than that of the United Kingdom (see TABLE 8 below).
TABLE 8 – number of deaths, Swabia and other countries per million people
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