Coronavirus, Istat: “In 2020 the GDP will drop by 8.3%. From the unprecedented Covid shock. Partial recovery in 2021, it is estimated + 4.6%”


One “Unprecedented shock” which will lead to a “marked contraction of pil in 2020 “, with a fall in the8.3%. L’Istat outlines the impact of the pandemic of coronavirus in the “Prospects for the Italian economy” and estimates for 2021 a “partial recovery” with an advance in gross domestic product of 4.6. Compared to previous estimates for 2020, according to ‘Istat, “overall the downward revision of GDP was around 9 percentage points “.

The Institute of Statistics points out that “the spread of the epidemic of COVID-19 and the consequent containment measures decided by the Government “have” determined a impact deep”. An “unprecedented shock”, whose quantification is connoted “From large levels of uncertainty”, is specified in the document.

“Quantifying the impact of the unprecedented shock that is affecting the Italian economy is an exercise characterized by large levels of uncertainty with respect to the past – is Istat’s reasoning – when persistence and regularity of phenomena represented one solid foundation for the calculation of the forecasts “.

The “Forecast picture submitted – underlines the institute of statistics – must therefore be interpreted as one first summary the results of the activities of use and interpretation of all the available information sources and adaptation of the forecast models, and as such intended to possible revisions in the coming months, together with the enrichment of the economic information available “.

In 2020 a “fall” is expected for i household consumption (-8.7%) which is also accompanied by the Investment “collapse” (-12.5%), compared to “1.6% growth in spending” of public administrations. The evolution ofoccupation Italian “is expected to evolve in line with the GDP, with one abrupt reduction in 2020 (-9.3%) and a recovery in 2021 (+ 4.1%) “, Istat continues.

“The indicators available for the month of May instead show some first signs of recovery in line with the process reopening of activities “, notes the Institute, specifying that there is a” trend reversal “in electricity consumption” markedly decreased in April “. “The recovery of production activity and consumption is expected to support an improvement in the economic climate with a positive effect on the GDP which, after a further decline in the second quarter, is expected in increase in second semester of the year, “comments Istat.

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