Coronavirus, Istat: “In 2020 GDP at -8.3% and 2 million seats lost. Unprecedented shock from Covid, partial recovery in 2021”


One “Unprecedented shock” which will lead to a “marked contraction of pil in 2020 “, with a fall in the8.3%. But the most dramatic number is the one concerning employment: the “work unit“, Which was around 24 million at the end of 2019, will drop by 9.3%: equivalent to over 2 million fewer seats. And in 2021 they will come recover less than half. These are the predictions made by theIstat in the note on “Prospects for the Italian economy”. The only positive aspect is that the institute repeatedly stresses that these are estimates with “large levels of uncertainty“.

The forecasts for the GDP, which in 2021 should partially recover, marking a + 4.6%, are slightly better than those of Bankitalia, which predicted a collapse between 9.2 and 13% followed by a 4.8% recovery in 2021, but those at work are far worse since via Nazionale a few days ago hypothesized a 1 million drop in employees.

Compared to previous estimates for 2020, Istat recalls, “overall the downward revision of GDP was around 9 percentage points “. The data of the National Statistical Institute “confirm the forecasts government “and indicate” one possible recovery in the third quarter “, commented the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri, specifying that for this” it is right to work intensely to meet the challenge “.

The institute of statistics – which had detected a contraction of 5.3% in first quarter – underlines that “quantifying the impact of the unprecedented shock that is affecting the Italian economy is an exercise characterized by large levels of uncertainty with respect to the past – is Istat’s reasoning – when persistence and regularity of phenomena represented one solid foundation for the calculation of the forecasts “. The “Forecast picture presented must therefore be interpreted as one first summary the results of the activities of use and interpretation of all the available information sources and adaptation of the forecast models, and as such intended to possible revisions in the coming months, together with the enrichment of the economic information available “.

In 2020 a “fall” is expected for i household consumption (-8.7%) which is also accompanied by the Investment “collapse” (-12.5%), compared to “1.6% growth in spending” of public administrations. The evolution ofoccupation Italian “is expected to evolve in line with the GDP, with one abrupt reduction in 2020 (-9.3%) “. The collapse is measured on the work units, calculated as the ratio between the total hours worked in the country and the average number of hours of activity of a full-time employee. Result: compared to about 24 million units of work at the end of 2019, more than 2 million will be lost. In 2021 the recovery will be only partial: + 4.1%.

“The indicators available for the month of May instead show some first signs of recovery in line with the process reopening of activities “, notes the Institute, specifying that there is a” trend reversal “in electricity consumption” markedly decreased in April “. “The recovery of production activity and consumption is expected to support an improvement in the economic climate with a positive effect on the GDP which, after a further decline in the second quarter, is expected in increase in second semester of the year, “comments Istat.

Covid-19 – explained the Institute – manifested itself in a phase of business cycle Italian characterized by signs of weakness (-0.2% the cyclical change in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019). In the first months of 2020 the indices of business confidence showed a substantial stability while those of the families highlighted one limited flexion. In addition the industrial production had registered a decided rebound economic situation in January.

As regards inflation, Istat reports that it has returned to “decelerate” after “the episodic recovery between December 2019 and January 2020:” The rate of trend increase in the index for the entire community stood at + 0.3% in the first quarter, it canceled ad April it’s at May it was just negative (-0.1%), for the first time since October 2016 “. The evolution was influenced by the “strongly negative contribution of the energetic voices (-12.7% in May from -2.1% in January); robust increases instead they registered for i food goods, in the face of a more sustained demand and the emergence of higher production costsand especially for some items of the unprocessed component (+ 3.7% in May, + 0.1% in February) “, is the analysis of the Institute.

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