Coronavirus. “Fighting small outbreaks.” The fear of the second wave

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While scientists fight over the unknown contagiousness of the asymptomatic or on the reasons for the less problematic evolution of disease, citizens wonder how concrete the second wave hypothesis is. Will it be there or not? Truncate the speech in the bud Giuseppe Ippolito, scientific director of Spallanzani of Rome who answers the question clearly: “I don’t have a glass ball.” Because the reality is that this virus it is unpredictable and scientists can only formulate hypotheses and ask the population not to take false steps and at the same time to governments to be ready.

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THE EXPERTS
“In this case it’s a bit like for earthquakes we have to equip ourselves with anti-seismic houses then if the earthquake does not arrive, better this way – Walter Ricciardi, Italian representative to the WHO executive committee and adviser to the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza – No one can be 100% certain that the pandemic can resume in October. But the hypothesis that the virus disappears is unlikely. “

«It is very difficult to say what will happen. Epidemics such as flu and even the Spanish itself arise from different viruses – explains Goretti’s Latina infectious disease specialist, Miriam Lichtner – This pandemic originates from an animal virus, such as Sars, and must be considered as a storm that passes by continent in continent: it has an intrinsic evolution that must be studied with mathematical models. It leaves epidemic outbreaks and they are the ones that could locally reactivate a new epidemic wave, for this reason we must do everything to be vigilant. Herd immunity of Covid-19 depends on other factors than for example measles, what we know is that every time an infected person manages to activate an outbreak (for example in the rsa or in the hospital) it can spread the infection and is what’s going on in Rome. Surveillance must be carried out for the next few months, now it is essential, there are too many variables linked to seasonal trends that do not make us feel safe »concludes the professor.

Not even the Gemelli Pneumology chief, Luca Richeldi, who is a member of the technical-scientific Committee for the emergency, clears up the horizons: «At present it is not possible to predict if there will be a new wave of cases in the months to come, in particularly in the autumn – he specifies – The right attitude is that of caution and all the presidia that have been set up (monitoring, tracing, dedicated hospitals) are crucial in order not to be found unprepared, as inevitably happened for the first wave. Moreover, outbreaks that have been recently reported show that surveillance tools work. Optimism is not incompatible with caution and the months to come must be addressed in this spirit “. And if there was a need, could everything be closed? “A second lockdown is not to be hoped for and would be an extreme measure, even if in other countries it has already happened” says Richeldi.

THE DATA
Mathematics in this case can help understanding. “The numbers at the moment do not lead us to predict a second wave in the coming months – Nicola Fusco, professor of Mathematics at the Federico II of Naples, is convinced of it – A second wave, if there will be it can only come in the autumn, if we have not managed to completely eradicate the epidemic and whether we will ease the spacing practices. But from here to September it seems to me that it can be difficult that the situation should be calm ». «At this moment no one is able to make predictions, the last pandemic experts were those of Spain a century ago and it seems to me that they are all dead. Smart people use common sense: a virus that has affected 7 million people is unlikely to disappear out of the blue. The precautions must still be followed and the outbreaks blocked in the bud, we cannot do anything else »concludes the immunologist of the University of Modena, Andrea Cossarizza lapidary.

Last updated: 08:31

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