BTP: rates and spreads still decreasing
In the wake of the decline that has already started several days ago, the BTP-Bund spread continued to lose ground today, stopping at 181.9 basis points, with a drop of 3.14%.
On the positive side, the BTPs that still catalyzed purchases, so much so that the 10-year yield suffered a drop of 2.98%, stopping at 1.398%, not far from the day’s lows.
BTP and Spread: what favored the good performance today
The renewed trend of risk-on has encouraged the good performance of the spread and BTPs, which has prompted investors to direct their purchases on the most risky securities of the European periphery, to the detriment of the Bund, which has managed to limit the damage today in the wake of news from China regarding the coronavirus emergency.
The scenario for Italian bond assets remains constructive in any case, judging from the indications that come from many quarters.
BTP: Carmignac more inclined to invest. Switch from the Bund
Carmignac experts focus on BTPs and are now more likely to invest in riskier government bonds in the euro area, given the lower risk of fragmentation of the same.
As explained by Didier Saint-Goerges, a member of Carmignac’s strategic investment committee, after a move away from non-core sovereign bonds, there has been a return of analysts on BTPs, with a consequent reduction in exposure to the Bund, considered safe havens .
BTP: Constructive Amundi on 10 and 30-year bonds. Here because
Amundi’s managers also look favorably on Italian government bonds, who point out that the hunt for yield continues on the Italian curve because it offers relatively interesting returns.
As a result, fund managers maintain a constructive stance on 30-year BTPs compared to Bunds with the same maturity and at the same time look favorably on 10-year BTPs, explaining that the moves of the ECB help to cap yields and stem the spread volatility.
Amundi’s experts point out that a downside risk is represented by the ruling of the German Constitutional Court, while believing that the ECB will hardly change its trajectory.
For this reason too, managers remain constructive on BTPs, explaining that exposure to these securities could serve to balance investors’ portfolios.
BTP: BlueBay asset management prefers them to Greek stocks
An assist for BTPs also comes from BlueBay Asset Management analysts, who know they have a constructive position towards the European periphery, where they have continued to migrate from Greek to Italian government bonds.
The CIO of BlueBay Asset Management has made it known these days that, together with a greater exposure to BTPs, an extension of the duration has also been decided.
The expectations are for a retracement of the Bund yields after the rise recorded in the last few weeks and this will therefore be in favor of the BTPs.
Spread: Commerzbank sees further declines in the summer
Finally, positive indications also come from Commerzbank which in recent days has revealed a view marked by optimism for the BTP-Bund spread.
The German bank in fact sees margins for a narrowing of the spreads of the EU periphery during the summer, in the wake of Germany’s decision to spend more and to give up opposing the Recovery Fund.