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In just three months of sanitary emergency for Covid 19, males from Brescia lost an average of two years of life in the annual report, 1.45 years of women. But if we limit ourselves to the seasonal data only, with the increase in deaths compared to the normal triple figure, thelife expectancy of Brescian males it fell by 5.2 years while for women the decrease was 3.87 years.
This is the event of greater demographic impact on our province after the war. These are the results of a study being published on the data provided by Istat by the Covid Crisis Lab, a research laboratory on the crisis derived from the Coronavirus created by the Bocconi University of Milan.
Coordinated by prof. Alessia Melegaro, the study took into consideration the five provinces most affected by the virus in relation to the number of inhabitants: 4 from Lombardy, Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona and Lodi and one from Emilia, Piacenza. The impact of the virus on the various provinces was different in values, but still very heavy as regards life expectancy. Professor Simone Ghislandi is among the authors of the research. “To get to those numbers – he explains – the mortality rate was calculated, which indicates the ratio between the number of deaths in a given area over a period of time compared to the quantity of the population.
Daily death numbers were provided by Istat in the period between 1 January and 15 April. In addition, the data were calculated by comparing them to the 2015-2019 four-year period. Life expectancy, on the other hand, is calculated with the mortality rate divided by age group, the number of deaths of the population for each age group.
Analyzing the greatest increase in deaths in Brescia in this period compared to the last few years, or 3671 more deaths, it is clear that if in 2017 the average life expectancy of a Brescian male was 81.2 years old and one female was 86 years old now it has become 79 for men and 84.5 for women.
This does not mean – explains Ghislandi – that this data remains in the coming years. In our calculation, however, we took for granted a return to normal mortality rates between next June and December excluding a second wave of Covid “. The increase in victims is decidedly higher and disproportionate compared to normal in the over seventy years as we read in the table opposite on the increases in deaths and the percentage of risk between the various age groups. The comparison with the Spanish.
In Bocconi’s signed study, the Covid-19 pandemic is often compared to the flu pandemic of 1918, called the Spanish, the most serious of the last century, where life expectancy for Italy decreased by 15 years. “But Covid was less serious than the influence that added to the effects of the war. And the Spaniard made many victims even among the young, which did not happen with this coronavirus “.
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