USA, anticipating the 7-day lockdown could have saved 36,000 lives

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It would have been enough to anticipate the lockdown of a week to avoid the death of at least 36 thousand people in the United States. A new model made by Columbia University scholars says so. Two weeks would have avoided the catastrophe instead.

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deepening

Coronavirus, from factories to restaurants: the green light in the 50 states

If we had started to close the cities, imposing social distancing, from March 1st instead of from the 15th, at least 54,000 people would have been saved in a country where today the number of infected people has exceeded 1.5 million, and the dead almost 100 thousand, practically twice those of the Vietnam War. And instead, still on March 9, the president Donald Trump up Twitter he wrote: “We don’t close anything, the economic life goes on. At the moment we only have 22 dead, we don’t need to close”.

The curves of the epidemic, on the other hand, are tragically ruthless: and they show how to set in motion even small variations in very short times, the virulence of the disease can change. And it certainly would have made a difference in cities like New York, Detroit, New Orleans: the hardest hit. This is confirmed by the New York Times mashed potato Jeffrey Shaman, Columbia epidemiologist at the head of the research team committed to assessing the impact of social distancing measures. Its results, among other things, show how inappropriate the reopening of many states is: unless the authorities are able to follow the spread of infections very closely, immediately suppressing new outbreaks.




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The fears are more than founded, says the Washington Post: showing how, analyzing cell phone data, PolicyLab analysts at the Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia already fear a new wave of patients in the south of the country. Yes, while all 50 states are reopening at least partially, given that the contagion curve seems to have subsided throughout America, Florida, Texas and Alabama, they are already against the trend. Here the numbers are growing: a worrying sign that seems to anticipate a new outbreak of the epidemic.

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American scientists and billionaires: the secret team to stop the virus

Among the cities most at risk Dallas and Houston. The alarm is also raised Anthony Fauci, the famous epidemiologist of the White House task force: “The virus is not disappearing. The risk is always very strong,” he told Washington Post.

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https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2020/05/21/news/usa_si_potevano_salvare_36mila_vite_umane_anticipando_il_lockdown-257246183/

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