Ubi Banca against Intesa Sanpaolo. Without Ops the title will collapse


In Piazza Affari, the two special supervised banks today were Ubi Banca and Intesa Sanpaolo which, in line with what happened for the Ftse Mib, closed the progress in trade, both going up for the fourth consecutive session.

Ubi Banca and Intesa Sanpaolo in the spotlight today in Piazza Affari

Ubi Banca, after gaining around 2.5% yesterday, showed itself more cautious today, stopping at € 2.529, with an advantage of 0.76% and over 15 million shares, against the average of just 30 days less than 10 million pieces.

More lively Intesa Sanpaolo which, after yesterday’s 3% rally, gained 2.48% today at 1.5384 euros, with high trading volumes, given that over 256 million shares changed hands at the end of the session, compared to the monthly average of around 191 million.

Ubi Banca asks for passivity rule to cease: that’s why

The two stocks ended up under the lens of the market after yesterday the Ubi Banca Board of Directors resolved to initiate an action aimed, ultimately, at the termination of the “passivity rule”, ie the inability to act for a company on which a takeover bid has been launched.

According to Ubi Banca, in fact, the failure by Intesa Sanpaolo to promptly activate the MAC clause, which would have occurred due to the outbreak of the coronavirus, would have the effect of the failure of art. 104 of the TUF which regulates the right of defense of companies subject to public offer.

The aforementioned article requires the Board of Directors, unless authorized by the ordinary or extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, to refrain from performing acts that could contrast the offer.

Ubi Banca: Equita does not see a better deal than Intesa

In the event that Consob accepts the requests from Ubi Banca, according to the analysts of Equita SIM, the Board of Directors could have greater strategic flexibility in negotiating any alternative transactions to the Intesa Sanpaolo offer which should however be approved by the extraordinary meeting.

According to experts, it is very unlikely that more advantageous strategic options will arise for Ubi Banca’s shareholders, who are able to enhance the share more than what is implicit in Intesa Sanpaolo’s offer.

In fact, the latter, analysts point out, recognized a 23% premium compared to the pre-Ops price when launching the operation.

Ubi Banca: for analysts it deals with premiums compared to competitors

Since the announcement of the offer, thanks to the bonus implicit in the exchange, Ubi Banca has outperformed its competitors, in particular Banco BPM and Bper Banca in the order of 25% and 30% respectively and now deals with a premium of between 25 % and 128%, if compared for example on the price-tangigle equity ratio of 0.37 times, compared to 0.28 times for Bper Banca and 0.15 for Banco BPM.

The Milanese SIM reminds that even its target price assigned to Ubi Banca, for € 2.3, partially discounts the prize recognized by Intesa Sanpaolo during the offer.

On a stand-alone basis, in fact, the valuation of Ubi Banca for Equita SIM would drop to € 2, except for alternative penalizing transactions.

In the meantime, the rating assigned to the stock that remains at “hold” does not change, while the view is bullish on Intesa Sanpaolo, with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of 2.2 euros.

Ubi Banca: Bca Akros, without Ops can collapse by more than 20%

To dwell on Ubi Banca’s move is also Banca Akros, according to which the board of the Bergamo institute is clearly trying to defend itself from an unsolicited offer in any way possible, given the application of the passivity rule.

Analysts explain that in the event that the action announced yesterday by Ubi Banca should be successful, then the price of the security should drop by more than 20%, given that it is currently trading including the premium offered by Intesa Sanpaolo.

Pending news, Banca Akros maintains a bullish view on Ubi Banca, with an “accumulated” rating and a target price of 35 euros.

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