the specter of a summer crisis advances

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Conte and the waltz of spite in the government: the specter of a summer crisis is advancing

The future of government he is a dancer. Like a waltz. The waltz of the spites. The one that maybe keeps up With you and the other government dancers, wearing them out more and more and weakening them in the eyes of the citizens, but it can also make them slide suddenly. With a parliamentary incident, for example. And in twenty days, the accident could be the vote on Salvini in the Senate room, question Open Arms, in which the Renzians want to assert their minuscule weight in the country but enormous at Palazzo Madama: without the 17 votes of Italia Viva in favor of the authorization to proceed (already denied by the Renzians in the Immunity Committee) the majority of the government is no longer present. And the legislature that has always been thought of as armored will no longer be.

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Preparing for the summer crisis and then maybe for the autumn ballot boxes? It is no longer a peregrine hypothesis. Which joins the reality of disputes and rifts within the government – the governance of Rai would also seem to have come back into play and Renzi’s tears would also be explained in this way: he wants a say in the choice of the new CEO of Viale Mazzini if ​​the current one, Salini, should give up as it is rumored – which are now adding up daily, and first the storm on the distrust of Minister Bonafede, now the Open Arms and the convergence between the two Mattei.

To say nothing of Di Maio who still has not disposed of the expulsion from the story of the return to Italy of Silvia Romano and must manage a movement that has lost its compass and suffers from subordination to the Democratic Party. Or moreover the creeping red-yellow wars plus Renzi for the hoarding of the presidencies of the expiring parliamentary commissions which are a crossroads of enormous power in the dynamics of the Palace.

Such an exhausted coalition could have serious difficulties in facing the repercussions of the post-Covid economic crisis on families, businesses and social peace. So much so that Salvini, who had been cautious about this in the lockdown phase in which the government did not dance the waltz was rather stable and with the wind of popular favor in the stern as it is no longer, now repeats: “The Executive Conte will fall shortly. ” Propaganda, of course. But coincidentally, while Renzi is pushing Franceschini for a step forward as new prime minister, the Democratic Party is preparing for the eventuality of the elections. And if until recently, in view of what was a hypothesis of unreality, the big democrats, from Zingaretti to Franceschini, spoke of Conte as “a reference point for all progressives”, that is, as a potential prime candidate in rossogiallo, now the enthusiasm of the Democratic Party for “Giuseppi” seems very attenuated. And he knows it. It can be peaceful, but never too much, until you notice a disaffection of the head of the delegation of the dem in government, that is Franceschini, the real strong man of this phase, the navigation of the ex-lawyer of the people rediscovering himself a skilled Christian boatman capable of floating will continue to do what what is he doing.

But in addition to the intolerances that are accumulating in the political arena – another issue on the verge of exploding is the issue of Highways where grillini and Renzi are at the antipodes like and more than they were on the Bonafede case – the majority of the robbery is the symptom evident of that sort of tiredness and disenchantment that rises from society towards those who lead the country at this stage. A valuable pollster, and there are not many of them, such as Alessandra Ghisleri, offers an analysis according to which the cycle is changing and the Prime Minister and his government have lost consensus very quickly in the last ten days. According to the scholar of electoral behavior, a rapid wear of trust is underway, both in the government and in the League: a situation of pre-collapse of national politics which is accompanied by worrying signs of public opinion.

Mistrust of the country on the one hand and mutual suspicions, with a waltz of spite, on the other hand, that of the government. Where for Conte, who has not yet found a stable modus vivendi with his ex-friend Di Maio, he is unable to appease his increasingly marked distrust of Renzi. Who, as they explain to the Nazarene, every other day – between tears and seams a little like this – tries to trip the premier, to make him understand that without Italia Viva the executive does not hold. Or by mistake or by calculation (the second one you said), the current government could fall.

In short, eyes on the date, in twenty days but not yet set with precision, in which the showdown on the Open Arms will take place in the Senate. And in these hours, in the center-right offices, the calculations are made: the opposition to Palazzo Madama has 139 votes (61 Forza Italy, 18 Brothers of Italy, 60 League) and if to queati were added to the rescue mdi Salvini i 17 of Italia Viva would reach 156. To reach 161, an absolute majority, the one needed to beat the government coalition, 5 more votes would be missing. Easily found in the shifting sands of heeled grilling, of the former grudging grillism, of the mixed mixed fry of the Mixed Group. And it would be overturned. Unless – and here’s the surprise that in the League someone does not feel like excluding – Silvio Berlusconi, notoriously concave and convex on everything and also on the judgment towards Conte who does not dislike and with whom he has a communication channel through Gianni Letta, would not end to give some form of more or less disguised support to the executive. To get back into the game out of the Salvinist hegemony, which the Knight can’t stand, and above all to avoid the ballot boxes that would be the end of Forza Italia.

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