The Rt index Region by Region: Phase 2 monitoring on 26 May


“At the moment in Italy no critical situations are reported related to the Covid-19 epidemic. ” This is the good news contained in the awaited Region by Region monitoring carried out by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, relating to the week between 18 and 24 May and updated to 26 May.

Heterogeneous situation between the Regions

As reported by the note of the Ministry of Health (available here), if on the one hand there are no overload signals of hospital care services on the national territory and improved resilience levels are observed, “theweekly incidence it remains however very heterogeneous in the national territory “.

This means that in some regions the number of cases is still high, circumstance denoting “a complex situation but under control”. In others, however, the number of cases is very limited. Therefore, “caution is recommended especially when it increases in frequency and size the movement of people on the national territory “.

More tests, decreasing trend

The report also highlights how the boots continue to be strengthened throughout the boot testing policies and screening “In order to identify the largest number of cases by carrying out isolation and quarantine / monitoring of close contacts”.

Despite therefore the increased diagnostic capacity throughout the territory, in almost all the Regions and Autonomous Provinces “the weekly trend of new cases diagnosed by date of diagnosis / collection is decreasing and the transmissibility indices (Rt) are below of 1 “.

When the numbers are so small, the Rt index is also specified – which measures the rate of contagiousness in the presence of containment measures – can easily get up above unity due to modest local outbreaks, which however do not represent a “worrying element”. This was exactly what happened in Umbria and Molise two weeks ago, and in Valle d’Aosta last week, situations that quickly returned.

The Rt indices of the Regions

But here are the data of all the Italian regions:

  • Abruzzo: Rt: 0.67 (Confidence interval, CI: 0.46-0.91). Cumulative incidence: 246.57 per 100,000
  • Basilicata: Rt: 0 (CI: 0-0). Cumulative incidence: 63.6 per 100,000
  • Calabria: Rt: 0.13 (CI: 0.01-0.35). Cumulative incidence: 59.88 per 100,000
  • Campania: Rt: being defined. Cumulative incidence: 78.29 per 100,000
  • Emilia-Romagna: Rt: 0.55 (CI: 0.49-0.62). Cumulative incidence: 618.62 per 100,000. Incidence: 6.32 per 100,000
  • Friuli-Venezia Giulia: Rt: 0.9 (CI: 0.67-1.16). Cumulative incidence: 260.61 per 100000. Incidence: 2.3 per 100000
  • Lazio: Rt: 0.74 (CI: 0.57-0.92). Cumulative incidence: 130.51 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.6 per 100,000
  • Liguria: Rt: 0.58 (CI: 0.51-0.66). Cumulative incidence: 615.17 per 100,000. Incidence: 6.13 per 100,000
  • Lombardy: Rt: 0.75 (CI: 0.72-0.84). Cumulative incidence: 867.33 per 100,000. Incidence: 16.68 per 100,000
  • Brands: Rt: 0.55 (CI: 0.35-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 439.53 per 100,000. Incidence: 3.02 per 100,000
  • Molise: Rt: 2.2 (CI: 1.5-3.33). Cumulative incidence: 141.35 per 100,000. Incidence: 2.62 per 100,000
  • Autonomous Province of Bolzano: Rt: 0.57 (CI: 0.37-0.83). Cumulative incidence: 487.41 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.51 per 100,000
  • Piedmont: Rt: 0.5 (CI: 0.46-0.55). Cumulative incidence: 703.56 per 100000. Incidence: 12.46 per 100000
  • Autonomous Province of Trento: Rt: 0.88 (CI: 0.68-1.09). Cumulative incidence: 999.45 per 100,000. Incidence: 12.57 per 100,000
  • Puglia: Rt: 0.62 (CI: 0.45-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 110.97 per 100,000. Incidence: 1.89 per 100,000
  • Sardinia: Rt: 0.51 (CI: 0.22-0.82). Cumulative incidence: 82.09 per 100000. Incidence: 0.37 per 100000
  • Sicily: Rt: 0.75 (CI: 0.44-1.19). Cumulative incidence: 60.68 per 100000. Incidence: 0.44 per 100000
  • Tuscany: Rt: 0.59 (CI: 0.47-0.73). Cumulative incidence: 266.19 per 100,000. Incidence: 2.63 per 100,000
  • Umbria: Rt: 0.94 (CI: 0.57-1.41). Cumulative incidence: 162.24 per 100,000. Incidence: 0.45 per 100,000
  • Aosta Valley: Rt: 0.8 (CI: 0.43-1.1). Cumulative incidence: 944.57 per 100000. Incidence: 6.37 per 100000
  • Veneto: Rt: 0.65 (CI: 0.49-0.83). Cumulative incidence: 389.47 per 100000. Incidence: 1.63 per 100000

Positive but “fluid” situation

The data therefore confirm the effectiveness of lockdown measures implemented in recent weeks, despite “in a context of persistent widespread transmission of the virus with a very different incidence in the 21 Regions or Autonomous Provinces”.

In short, there remains an “epidemiologically fluid” situation in many Italian regions, which, stresses the report, “requires rigorous compliance with the measures necessary to reduce the risk of transmission such as individual hygiene and physical distance”. Furthermore, particular caution is needed in view of the green light to travel between the regions: for the next few hours, the communication of the definitive date from which it will be possible to move on the national territory is expected.

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