“The Oxford vaccine has a 50% chance of success”


The long awaited study on vaccine against coronavirus has only one 50% chance of success. To say this is not an internal source or a corridor voice but the professor at the helm of the project, Adrian Hill. About the University of Oxford the eyes of the whole world are concentrated. High hopes have been placed on the vaccine at the research team’s study, with an agreement for 30 million doses already set by next September. Professor Hill, however, puts his hands forward and announces that the effectiveness of the vaccine is not taken for granted. The ‘problem’ would lie in the fact that the virus is slowing down its chain of contagions in the United Kingdom. A positive stop, of course. If the virus circulates at low levels, however, it does not allow scientists to check the effectiveness of the vaccine. About 0.25 percent of the population is currently infected and this figure will further decrease if the lockdown continues to function. At this point, volunteers will find it difficult to detect SARS-CoV-2 and test the effectiveness of the vaccine itself. A bit like what happened to Sars who disappeared in the summer making the search for a cure useless.

Covid slows down infections: this is a problem for vaccine research

In an interview granted to the Telegraph the professor Adrian Hill, as previously said director of the Jenner Institute of the University of Oxford, confirmed this doubt: “The rapid disappearance of the virus in the UK could cast doubt on the team’s ability to meet the four-month deadline. If Covid-19 isn’t spreading into the community, volunteers will have a hard time intercepting it, which means that scientists can’t prove whether the vaccine really makes a difference. If at the beginning of the year we said that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September, now the chances have dropped to 50%. We are in an anomalous position: we should hope that Covid will remain in the community for some time at rather high levels. The drop in cases of contagion paradoxically damages our search for a cure“.

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