the confirmation came, but it was worse than expected


Italy is in technical recession. This was confirmed by the data on the 1st quarter GDP which unfortunately also revised the initial estimates downwards, painting a more dramatic picture than expected.

Our economy has contracted and it has in a particularly evident way. Everything happened because of the coronavirus, which from a simple epidemic confined to China turned out to be a real global pandemic that put the entire planet with its back to the wall.

Istat’s initial data had already estimated a strong drop for the Italian GDP, but today’s definitive survey has dispelled any doubts: Italy has entered a recession and the extent of the latter was still more imposing than expected.

Italy in recession: all data for the 1st quarter of 2020

In the period January-March, and in comparison with the last quarter of last year, the tricolor GDP is collapsed by 5.3%. The final figure unfortunately revised (negatively) the preliminary one, which spoke of a more contained decrease of 4.7%.

Given the -0.3% recorded in the last quarter of 2019, with today’s survey Italy has officially entered technical recession.

Things have not gone much better even on an annual basis, therefore in comparison with the GDP of the 1st quarter of 2019. In this case the thud was even more marked, well 5.4 percentage points, and compared with the preliminary drop of 4.8%.

“In the first quarter of 2020, according to the preliminary estimate, GDP suffered one exceptional contraction induced by the economic effects of the current health emergency and the containment measures adopted “,

Istat declared in the end of April report, adding:

“The decline in GDP is of an entity never recorded since the beginning of the observation period of the current time series that begins in the first quarter of 1995. ”

Compared to that survey, however, things have even gotten worse and Italy’s technical recession has been confirmed. In the report released a few minutes ago by the institute, the latter trod on the exceptional extent of the decline, never registered since 1995.

A fundamental drop in GDP was the drop in domestic demand, which plummeted much more markedly than foreign demand. Consumption (within national borders) had a negative contribution of 4 points while investments of 1.5. On the other hand, a percentage point of positive contribution was attributed to inventories.

Bankitalia’s alarm

The governor of. Has also expressed his opinion on the state of the Italian economy today Bankitalia Ignazio Visco, according to which in the base scenario the Italian Gross Domestic Product will contract by 9% throughout 2020.

On the other hand, if things go worse than expected, the economy will plausibly collapse by a more evident one 13%. Without a doubt more pessimistic data than those of today’s Istat survey.

The latter, in fact, in addition to sanctioning Italy’s technical recession have made it possible to estimate one variation acquired for 2020 of -5.5%.

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