“Second wave risk in autumn”

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Coronavirus, Brusaferro: Second wave risk in autumn

“The closer we get to autumn, the more we can face a greater diffusion: the hypothesis of a second wave is linked to this characterization. It is a given objective, in autumn the probability of transmission increases: the climate changes and we remain mostly in confined spaces “. It is a passage from the hearing of Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Higher Institute of Health, in the Budget Committee.

“The Scientific and Technical Committee must put in place all possible scenarios. Autumn is the season in which upper respiratory tract infections spread, it is the season in which flu vaccination is recommended. For the scenarios we can imagine, a pathology “like that related to coronavirus” can be more widespread “and” confusion with other respiratory symptoms “can be created,” he notes.

“We have overcome the peak curve of the infection, we are going downhill and in a phase of control that requires special attention. We need to identify suspect cases that need to be isolated early. These are recommendations adopted internationally, which require monitoring systems and the ability to respond from a health point of view: in the event of outbreaks, we must identify them and respond appropriately. Our country has developed a monitoring system between the state and regions with a series of indicators. We are facing a more important challenge, mobility between regions will be liberalized, “says Brusaferro.

“At the beginning the big wave was characterized by symptomatic people who mainly addressed hospitals. In all regions there is a decrease, different depending on whether the circulation was higher. In some regions of the south they pass whole days without reporting cases or with sporadic cases. Even where circulation is rather limited, we are faced with a situation where the virus is still present and behaviors are the most effective measure to reduce circulation, “he says.

“The number of people who contracted the infection is very limited in the whole country, even if it varies from area to area. From an epidemiological point of view, having many people susceptible to infection, these represent a reservoir. Herd immunity it requires that a large part of the population be immunized. In our country lethality has mainly affected elderly people, especially over the age of 70. Most of these people are carriers of multiple diseases and are more exposed “, he highlights.

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