Rt index in the Italian regions as of 22 May: decreases in Lombardy, more asymptomatic


The falling curve in all regions, also in Lombardy. Coronavirus cases are decreasing, but the virus continues to circulate and attention must be kept high. The president of the said itHigher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, in the press point on the progress of the epidemic. the summary of the long-awaited monitoring of Phase 2, which will inspire the decisions of local administrations on reopening. The data communicated in the press conference are updated on May 19 and – according to the report – after May 3 are still incomplete. The Rt contagion index fluctuates a lot – added Brusaferro -. But Rt is not a report card but a dynamic tool that helps us understand what happens and must be crossed with other data.

Asymptomatics are growing

The Regions – explained Brusaferro – are equipping themselves with tampons and contact tracing and for this reason they can register more asymptomatic. Brusaferro also reports that we have no signs of overloading hospital services, both as regards intensive care and as regards wards: it means that the system is able to meet health needs. In any case, to date the data are good, and they give us the guarantee of the ability of the regions to intervene.

The virus still in circulation: We do not rule out an increase

Brusaferro called for not to let down his guard: Today the virus is still circulating, we cannot afford to loosen individual behavior measures. We cannot rule out an increase in the coming weeks, but the important thing that we have the tools to intercept them. Now, concluded Brusaferro, the more we go towards a limited number of cases, the more the system will be sensitive to identify cases immediately.

Hope: The country has held up well on the openings of May 4

The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, comments: Monitoring data is currently encouraging. They tell us that the country has held up well with the first openings of May 4th. But woe to think that the game is won. Maximum caution is needed. It takes little to nullify the sacrifices made so far.

Positive signs for Lombardy

The analysis of the data region by region shows a map at various speeds with a sharp decreasing trend in Lombardy (0.51, the last survey was 0.62), although it is the most affected region. And this a positive signal added Brusaferro confirming that from the daily data we see a decreasing trend in this region and more and more people are unable to identify the asymptomatic or those who have few symptoms. Other good news comes from hospitals: Indicators of hospitalization and intensive care use have gone below threshold levels.

The Aosta Valley above 1, small peaks in Molise and Umbria

The contagion index Rt below 1 in all Italian regions except the Val d’Aosta, arrived at 1.06. I would not want Val d’Aosta to become a case – specified Brusaferro – because very few cases are enough in an area where the virus circulates little to raise this value, which remains around 1. In short, for Brusaferro, in the coming weeks an increase cannot be excluded, but linked to the ability to intercept cases, and this is especially true where there are few cases. Last week they had come under scrutiny Umbria and Moliif where there have been small peaks, immediately returned has explained. On these two regions, the president of the ISS points out, a big debate has started in the face of a very limited number of cases. In Umbria the scale of 20-25 cases differs from 1-2 thousand. In Molise we speak of a peak tied to a funeral ceremony: 10-20-30 cases.

The estimates

Here is the estimate of Rt region by region:
Abruzzo 0.86
Basilicata 0.63
Calabria 0.17
Campania 0.45
Emilia Romagna 0.46
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.63
Lazio 0.71
Liguria 0.52
Lombardy 0.51
Brands 0.48
Molise 0.51
Piedmont 0.39
Bolzano (autonomous province) 0.45
Trento (autonomous province) 0.77
Puglia 0.56
Sardinia 0.27
Sicily 0.69
Tuscany 0.59
Umbia 0.53
Aosta Valley 1.06
Veneto 0.56

The decision on travel between regions

The weekly report produced by the Ministry of Health with the Higher Institute of Health, based on the ministerial decree signed on April 30 by Roberto Speranza (here the text), records the state of health of the country after the end of the lockdown, with regard to Covid-19 impact. The crucial date remains that of May 29, 2020. Because that day, next Friday, the weekly monitoring report will arrive, which will provide indications to allow the green light to travel between the regions from June 3. Although Brusaferro brakes: Rt’s, which changes on a weekly basis, is not a value on which the decision on the shift between regions can be based – he explains -. It serves rather to understand the system’s ability to control the deviations of the epidemic curve. The issue of mobility between important Regions and the goal of tackling it safely, probably with a reduced number of new cases even more than today, he says.

Vaccine: scheduled for spring-summer 2021

Finally, AIFA director general Nicola Magrini took stock of vaccines: There are at least 5 or 6 advanced vaccines, Italy also participates in different ways. The reasonable time for you to have a vaccine ready spring-summer of next year, I don’t think there is any vaccine available in September. As for plasma, the invitation to stop the controversy, while for hydroxychloroquine, which has come back into vogue after Trump’s words, studies so far have not given encouraging results.

May 22, 2020 (change May 22, 2020 | 4:47 pm)


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