recession confirmed, but things are about to get worse


There Germany is in recession technique.

The latest definitive data on the GDP for the first quarter of 2020, which simultaneously confirmed the downward revision of the data for the last three months of 2019.

The two consecutive downturns of the German Gross Domestic Product have opened the doors to the much feared recession of Germany, always known as the locomotive of Europe. The situation has therefore turned out worse than expected.

Germany in recession: the data that make us tremble

In the first three months of the year, and compared to the period October-December 2019, Germany’s GDP is slipped by 2.2%, while on a trend basis, therefore compared to the 1st quarter of last year, the figure registered a thump of 1.9%.

Alongside the data on the first months of 2020, the locomotive of Europe has revised those of the last quarter of 2019, a period which according to the updates ended with a drop of 0.1%. To recap:

  • GDP 4th trim. 2019: -0.1%
  • GDP 1st trim. 2020: -2.2%

Seen i two consecutive quarters of degrowthGermany officially entered a technical recession.

The 2.2% contraction, determined by the containment measures put in place by the government to avoid the spread of coronavirus, was in line with analysts’ expectations but nevertheless represented the most significant collapse from the financial crisis, more specifically from the first three months of 2009.

Among other things, things could even get worse. The country’s statistical office has already provided for a 10% thud in the second quarter of the year, while Deutsche bank estimated a -14%. The extent of the drop (and any subsequent recovery) will depend, as always, on the duration of the lockdown and on the effectiveness of the containment measures.

However, it should be noted that, despite the recession in Germany, the 1st quarter decrease rate was not as dramatic as that of economies such as France, Italy and Spain, which recorded contractions of about 5 percentage points. It was only the best that did it Hollanddown 1.7% more.

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