Published on: 05/28/2020 10:09
The regions and Lombardy ‘adjust’ the data for fear of another stop? “There is a reasonable suspicion that this is the case, also because in Lombardy too many oddities have occurred in the data during these three months: discharged subjects who were communicated as healed by feeding the so-called healed silos; alternations and delays in data communication, which could have been justified in the emergency phase when there were many cases but much less now, yet recounts are much more frequent in this phase 2. It is as if there was a sort of need to keep the number of cases diagnosed below a certain level“. So Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, guest of 24 Mattino on Radio 24.
“Lombardy – continues – it probably had this enormous spread of the infection in a phase preceding Codogno’s case 1 and the lockdown measures, as we had asked for in early March, had to be more rigorous and restrictive. We had asked for the closure of the entire Lombardy region, a bit like Wuhan, because it was evident that that level of explosion of the contagion could only be evidence of a virus that was spreading in a widespread way already in February. It was not done, a whole series of non-decisions have been taken, such as the non-closure of the areas of Alzano Lombardo and Nembro, which determined everything that happened in the Bergamo area, and then an obsessive desire to reopen “.
“Our big concern is that in this moment the Lombard situation is the one that will come out last from this tragedy, because if it closes too late and you want to reopen too soon, and you also mix up the numbers, then it is obvious that the political will is not to dominate the epidemic but it is to start again as soon as possible with all the activities, and this does not leave you calm “, says the president of the Gimbe foundation for whom” an adequate testing activity is not being carried out “.
“It is evident that the submerged cases are 10-20 times the existing ones – adds Cartabellotta – and if I do not go to identify them, trace and isolate these they continue to turn and spread. It is a dog that bites its tail: on the one hand you do not want to make too many swabs to avoid putting too many cases on the plate, on the other by not identifying these cases it feeds the infection so much that, according to the evaluation we publish today, in in the last 23 days, from 4 to 27 May, Lombardy has 6% of positive diagnostic swabs, and I stress ‘diagnostic’ because if we put all the swabs in the denominator it is clear that this percentage artificially drops. Liguria is 5.8%, Piedmont 3.8% “.
“The only two regions that are carrying out a massive testing activity – explains Cartabellotta – are Valle d’Aosta and the province of Trento which have been making about 4,200 tampons per 100,000 inhabitants since May 4th. A fairly substantial number. Immediately afterwards there are Basilicata and Friuli which stand at 2,200-2,300 while the most affected regions, Lombardy, Piedmont, Liguria, Emilia Romagna, are around 1,200-1,500 per day “.
“It is clear – he underlines – that this is also reflected in the number of cases diagnosed. Then there are some southern regions such as Puglia, Sicily and Campania, which is true that they have few cases but it is also true that they make a number of swabs for 100 thousand inhabitants between 250 and 800. The concept is: the virus, to find it you have to look for it; if you don’t look for it, it’s not certain that it isn’t there “.
Health passport and immunity license: “I would mention the scene of Fantozzi and the Battleship Potemkin, for a variety of reasons: in the meantime. explains Cartabellotta – every test that is carried out has a validity linked to the moment it is carried out, I can do the swab today and get infected tomorrow morning; and then the license is often attributed to serological tests which in fact have a very low specificity with too many false positives, but in any case even if one is negative it can become infected the next day “.
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