Polls, the League has lost 7 points in 2 months: Pd near (without doing anything). Fratelli d’Italia boom: it is at 16, half a point from the 5 Stars


The data on voting intentions may change from week to week and from institution to institution but the trend of consent of the League on the long horizon it appears clear: the Northern League remains the first party but progressively back off. A descent that according to the latest survey by Ipsos on the Corriere della Sera is measurable in almost 7 points in two months, from 31.1 to 24.3. A ride with the handbrake pulled which allows the Pd that is practically plaster around to 20-21 (this month at 21.2, -0.1 compared to April) to approach without “merit”. As for the Democrats, it should also be noted that according to the data of the institute headed by Nando Pagnoncelli the recovery of consents lost with the split of Italia Viva: at European the party of Nicola Zingaretti recorded the 22.7 and now precisely aims the share of 22.

Melons ate at the home of the League
Like all the polls, Ipsos too, in the face of the decline in the League, highlights the substantial increase in consents of Brothers of Italy: the party of Giorgia Meloni is the protagonist of a further expansion after that of early spring and now touches the figure of 16.2, with an increase in the last month of about two points. A performance that makes even more impression compared to the data of the European last year, when he picked up the 6.5. The almost triple increase reminds us a little of the rise of the League to which the Brothers of Italy now evidently steal the outgoing votes a couple of years ago.

fDI is still the fourth party but according to Ipsos it is now closely following the M5s: the detachment and of half a point that in surveys that have margins of error around 3 it is almost nothing. THE Five stars – which according to some survey institutes in the last few weeks had substantially held – do not complete the “comeback” that started in January (14%) and continued until the end of April (18.6). Indeed in the last month they have left again on the ground a couple of points of consent, stopping now at 16.7.

Limit your losses Come on Italy, stabilized at 7.4 (priceless decline of 0.1 since the end of April) with a non-dramatic loss of just over one point from 8.8 of the Europeans.

With a very small party
Mark another minus in the “historical” since its foundation in September to today Italia Viva: the party of Matteo Renzi is given to 3 net, an imperceptible drop from the end of April (-0.1) which becomes more sensitive than in the autumn when it was close to 5. Also for this reason it is now followed by the almost twin party Action of Carlo Calenda which, thanks to the “convenience” of the opposition, can extend to 2.2, from 1.4 last month. Malino according to Ipsos the left of Free and Equal, another government force: it is at 1.8 due to a drop of 0.2 in a month which in any case is part of a ups and downs that lasts for months around 2. Under 2 also + Europe (1.3, down 0.4 again in one month) e Green Europe (1.8, -0.1).

Having said that, however statistically the center is a little more than 5 points ahead of any possible alliance center-M5s (48 versus 43), it is worth noting that it is in significant increase L’undecided area he was born in I don’t vote: if in March and April they were estimated, together, in a gap between 39 and 40 (by rounding) they now go over 43.

Voting flows: removals from Lega to Fdi and from Pd and M5s to non-voting
The additional processing that Ipsos does is to study i voting streams from the Europeans to today, thus returning the photograph of how the distribution of votes has changed again, moreover in a relatively short time as has been happening for several years now. According to Ipsos data the League he lost a fifth of that 34 percent won in the polls a year ago. Of these lost votes one in 6 He went to Brothers of Italy: a figure that confirms the dynamic that had already seemed evident “with the naked eye” for several weeks, in particular those of the Coronavirus emergency. Still in the center right a tenth of those who in the European Union marked the symbol of Come on Italy it has moved to the other two parties, more radical in politics and language. In general, finally, the macro data that emerges is that all the main parties pay a price for abstention and for the benefit of the “undecided” area: the 19 percent who voted League, the 17 who voted Pd and even the 26.2 of whom chose the M5s, a sign that the travails of the movement also coincide with a loss of part of its electorate.

Government and Conte, declining popularity but still over 50
What effect does all this have on trust in the government he was born in Prime Minister It is on liking towards the political leaders? After the phase of the emergency that has understandably slightly doped the support to the executive and to Giuseppe With you, the peak seems to have passed and a waning phase begins. The head of government according to Ipsos this month counts on the approval of 60 percent – which is a high figure e higher to the average around 48-50 recorded from September to February -, but recorded a drop of 6 points in the last month. The executive pays a less flashy account of 3 points which leads him to 55 percent of liking, even in this case anyway higher to the pre-Covid one.

Meloni the leader ahead of Speranza. Landslide of Zingaretti. Renzi 7 points behind Crimi
The fact remains that in this “ranking” the other leaders are far away. Slightly increasing, in proportion to your party, Giorgia Meloni 36 percent (+1 compared to April). After the April exploit, the Minister of Health drops Roberto Speranza (from 35 to 37), which, among other things, as we have seen, can rely little on the dragging effect of its political force. Hope however still holds the bow ahead of that of Matteo Salvini which regains its share after the thud in April: it is at 33, with an increase of 2 percentage points. Three ministers follow: Dario Franceschini (32, -2), Luigi Di Maio (27, -2), Teresa Bellanova (26, +1). The most ruinous fall is that of the secretary of the Democratic Party Nicola Zingaretti which retires on the line of 25, with a small landslide of 5 points compared to April. On the rise Silvio Berlusconi (24, +3), government officials of the M5s are down Alfonso Bonafede (22, -2) e Vito Crimi (20, -2). Stable, but last and quite detached the ex premier Matteo Renzi: Gathers only 13 percent of positive reviews.

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