Like every month, we are also in May, analyzing the voting guidelines of the Italians and their assessments on the government and the Prime Minister. The approval ratings of Conte and the executive show a decrease of 6 and 3 points respectively compared to April, returning to the values of March, when the consensus increased significantly following the adoption of measures to contain the contagion. In the face of the decrease in health concerns and the growing concern about the economic situation, criticisms have emerged on the effectiveness of the measures adopted so far by the government.
The voting guidelines of citizens show some important changes, starting with the sharp increase in abstention and indecision which reached 43.2%, about 10 points more than a year ago. There League, while remaining ahead of Italian preferences, marks the further drop of 1.1 points to 24.3%, followed by Pd stable at 21.2%. Following the M5S with 16.7%, down 1.9%, followed by FDI which increases by 2.1% to 16.2%, the highest value ever recorded in our surveys. Then Come on Italy with 7.4% e Italy alive with 3%, both stable compared to April.
Beyond the trends, however, it is useful to try to explain by the analysis of the electoral flows the variations of the consents for the parties compared to the results to the Europeans of a year ago. There League sees its consent significantly reduced. His losses are mainly towards the Brothers of Italy (if we make 100 league voters in the European Championships, just under 18% have moved to Giorgia Meloni’s formation) and towards uncertainty and abstention (19%). If we look at the social segments, the biggest losses are between graduates, professional and middle classes, housewives, residents in the Northwest and in the Center-North (the four regions that once called themselves red) and among practicing Catholics.
It therefore seems to glimpse two trends: an exit presumably due to the difficulty of maintaining an attitude of national cohesion in a moment of dramatic crisis that pushed the Italians to unitary sentiments, and in parallel the erosion of appeal by Salvini, who missed the workhorses (primarily immigration and security) that have determined its success in the European Championships. Demonstrating that the extensive power on social networks must also be supported by a physicality, by a direct relationship, which the pandemic has blocked. Brothers of Italy it marks an impetuous growth in consensus, benefiting at the same time both from the higher loyalty rate of European voters and from the attraction of new voters, starting with disappointed Northern League players. The training leader also enjoys a high personal positioning, with a now stably higher appreciation than Salvini. Despite some flaws, Giorgia Meloni appeared as more “national” in a difficult moment. From a social point of view, FdI recovers votes in self-employment (outgoing flow from the League) and among civil servants where, especially in the center of the country, it already had a strong point.
The 5Stelle movement it has been going down for a few weeks. Compared to the European elections, the most significant loss (more than a quarter of the votes) is towards uncertainty and abstention, while more contained flows are towards the center-right (8%) and center-left formations (just over 5%). The M5S is a formation with voters of different political origins, and a part falls towards their own areas of reference. But the majority of the votes lost towards the gray area indicate the difficulty of the Movement in keeping the different souls together. The experience of government (of two governments) has led to substantial erosion. On the one hand, it has not been possible to maintain a position of “purity”, as always happens when governing, on the other, the idea of a general vision of the country has not been given. The resumption of consensus in the pandemic period seems to have already returned: in the moment of cohesion, the role of government has favored a certain growth in appeal, today some elements of difficulty (the themes of justice on the one hand, the divisions about school on the other ), together with a partial reduction in government appreciation, have produced the contractions of the past few weeks.
Finally, the Democratic party. Substantially stable since March, in addition to the outflow to the gray area, the party has lost some of its consensus (today it is in fact about a point and a half under the European vote) towards Italy alive. The split led to a sensitive exit (just under 7%), certainly not a transfer. On the other hand, the Democratic Party has recovered shares of environmental and left-wing voters, thanks to the new secretariat, which has moved more into that area and the return to the party of some of the protagonists of the Bersanian split, such as the president of Tuscany Rossi. These returns reinforce the “typical” electorate of parity: in fact, left-wing retirees have seen appreciable growth in recent months. In short, the scenario appears to be evolving, but basically it is not a surprise and in recent years we have become used to electoral volatility.
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