Phase 2, Gimbe Foundation: “Few swabs and too many new cases. Lombardy, Piedmont and Liguria are not ready to reopen”

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Lombardy, Liguria is Piedmont are not ready to reopen their borders on 3 June. It can be read in the latest report published by Gimbe Foundation who independently studies data on the pandemic of coronavirus since its appearance in Italy. Several elements have led to say that, in these areas of the country, the contagion curve is far from under control: “In these Regions, the highest percentage of positive diagnostic swabs, the largest increase in new cases, in the face of a limited aptitude for performing diagnostic swabs “. And they add that “in Emilia Romagna an even lower propensity could distort the number of newly infected people downwards “.

While scientists and administrators divide on government initiatives ahead of June 3, pending the latest data to be released on May 29 and on which the health minister’s decision will be based, Roberto Speranza, of the scientific technical committee and the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, the Foundation emphasizes that, “taking into account the considerable regional heterogeneities in the execution of the pads and the limited reliability of theindex Rt (the transmissibility index of an infected person, ed) “, It is important to consider two indicators: theincidence of new cases and the number of swabs “Diagnostic”, excluding those performed to confirm virological healing or for the need to repeat the test.

And the result, based on the analysis of data from the period post-lockdown (4-27 May), highlights three aspects that trigger an alarm on the three Regions indicated. As for the percentage of positive diagnostic swabs, this “is higher than the national average (2.4%) in 5 regions. Significantly in Lombardy (6%) and Liguria (5.8%) and to a lesser extent in Piedmont (3.8%) Puglia (3.7%) and Emilia-Romagna (2.7%) “.

If instead we move on to consider i diagnostic swabs per 100 thousand inhabitants, “Compared to the national average (1,343), they only stand out Valle d’Aosta (4,076) and the Autonomous Province of Trento (4038). In the three regions with a high incidence of new cases, the propensity to execute tampons remains slightly above the national average both in Piedmont (1,675) and in Lombardy (1,608), while Liguria (1,319) stands just below ”, With Emilia-Romagna having even lower numbers (1,202).

Finally, theincidence of new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants: “Compared to the national average (32), the incidence is clearly higher in Lombardy (96), Liguria (76) and Piedmont (63). If the data of the Molise (44) is not of concern because linked to a recent outbreak already identified and circumscribed, that of Emilia-Romagna (33) could be underestimated by the number of diagnostic swabs (1,202 per 100 thousand inhabitants) “too low.

These data, explain from the Gimbe Foundation, could be even more optimistic than the current situation, given that “they reflect almost entirely the reopenings of May 4th, but not the much larger ones of May 18th which can be assessed in the period 1-14 June, taking into account an average of 5 days of incubation of the virus and 9-10 days to obtain the results of the swab. So 23 days after the loosening of the lockdown, the Gimbe Foundation shows that the contagion curve is not adequately controlled in Lombardy, Liguria and Piedmont “.

The scenery before which the scientific technical committee will find itself, comments the president of the Foundation, Nino Cartabellotta, are three: “The first, more risky, to reopen mobility throughout the country, accepting any decision by the Southern Regions to activate the quarantine for those arriving from areas of greatest contagion. The second, a reasonable compromise, to maintain the limitations only in the three regions most at risk, with the option of allowing mobility between them. The third, more prudent, is to prolong the total blockade of interregional mobility, without prejudice to the due exceptions currently in force “.

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