Phase 2, displacements between regions: now a key date appears


There date set for the beginning of the movements between regions could be June 3. And the conditional, never as in these cases, is a must since nothing prevents the scenario from changing at any moment in the face of an ill-fated reversal of the epidemiological trend.

One thing is certain: everything will depend on the data relating to the infections. Although Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced during the press conference on Saturday 16 May that there will be “greater freedom of movement” on the national territory, the activity of monitoring of cases of positivity at Covid-19. This will be the only reference parameter for establishing useful conditions to guarantee movements in total safety. Then, it will be up to the individual regional governments to decide and pass ad hoc ordinances.

The words of Minister Boccia

That on June 3 there may be a complete restoration of mobility is therefore still to be ascertained. The indiscretion emerges from the words of the Minister of Regional Affairs Francesco Boccia, who in today’s hearing at the Federal Tax Commission in the Chamber, establishes the conditions so that it can really materialize within the set deadline. “The possibility of planning interregional reopenings from June 3 has been made official – confirmation – but on condition that the monitoring data is respected. If a region is at high risk, it is clear that it cannot participate in interregional mobility “.

The key date

In light of what Minister Boccia says, and considering that the weekly monitoring data is released every Friday, it is very likely that the “key date” to decree the reopening of the regional borders will be May 29. Furthermore, if a Region were to be included among the “high-risk” ones, it could be excluded from inter-regional mobility and far more stringent measures for travel would take place in that region. The monitoring data at the end of the lockdown indicated that only Molise, Umbria and Lombardy were Regions with “moderate” risk. No region came under the ‘high’ risk classification.

The transmissibility index RT

Monitoring is carried out by the Ministry of Health in agreement with the Higher Institute of Health on the basis of the data collected by the Regions and classified in 21 different parameters. The parameter to determine the so-called “transmissibility index” is the RT factor which, in a nutshell, describes the rate of contagiousness after the application of the measures to contain the spread of the disease and is different from R0 (the potential measure transmissibility of an infectious disease in its early stage). The SARS Cov-2 virus has an R0, on average, of 2.5 secondary cases, while the transmissibility index Rt, at this time, is between 0.2 and 0.7. If the value should remain stable or decrease in the coming weeks, then it will mean that the contagions will have decreased further and therefore there would be no danger for the reopening of regional borders.

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