Via Nazionale warns that demography will require us to remain active for a long time
Even if the League reiterated, just yesterday, that one of the cornerstones of its economic policy remains Quota 100, the Bank of Italy has other ideas. To scroll through the Annual Report attached as every year to the Final Considerations read yesterday by Governor Ignazio Visco, another reality is discovered. This time less based on political considerations and more on that of demography. Which risks condemning the Italians to remain in place well beyond the current 67 years of age. It is not the malice of the Fornero on duty but the aging of society. “In the next decade, the Italian economy – reports the Bank of Italy – will face a significant reduction in the population of working age. According to the latest Eurostat projections, by 2032 the number of people aged between 15 and 64 will decrease by 6%; the population aged 15 to 74 will drop less markedly (-1.5 per cent; -700,000), due to the sharp increase in the age group between 65 and 74 (24%) “. And the decline will continue, accentuating, in the following decades because the higher life expectancies and the decline in births will lead to an increase in the group of the oldest.
The contraction of the population of working age will be associated with the progressive increase in its average age. For this reason, “the unfavorable impact of demography on labor input may be countered, in addition to a reabsorption of unemployment, by the continuation of the positive trends recently observed in the job offer of the various demographic groups (distinguished by age, gender, levels of education and citizenship) and by a further progressive lengthening of working life “, explains the dedicated paragraph. Which makes those who thought they were close to the pension allowance tremble. In fact, if there are fewer young people and older people to maintain balance, the latter will have to remain more at work. And therefore to postpone the exit to get the annuity. The trends recorded in the world of work «could allow the participation rate of the population aged between 15 and 74 to reach 60 percent in 2032, from 57.3 last year. The increase in the retirement age required by current legislation is expected to contribute about half, “said the Bank of Italy. In fact, opening the scientific basis for the inevitable debate on future pension reform that will have to be prepared to face the expiry of the quota and the overcoming of Fornero. However, the address seems already given. It will be nature, i.e. the reduction in the birth rate combined with the progressive lengthening of life expectancy, that will make older people remain behind the desks or in the factory.
Regardless of ideological visions, demographic trends are not favorable even taking into account the contribution of immigration (estimated by Eurostat at around 200,000 people on average per year). Even with this the population aged between 15 and 64 will decrease by over 3 million in the next 15 years. There is no escaping. Anyone thinking of enjoying the sun of Portugal or some tropical island can put their swimsuit back in the closet. So says Bankitalia.