Oil is advancing, but is the worst really behind?


The oil price it again took the upward path, while fears regarding the collapse of demand and a new wave of contagions were albeit temporarily shelved.

There quotation of the WTI it strengthened beyond the $ 30 a barrel threshold and posted progressions in excess of two percentage points. Even the Brent posted a similar trend, rising above $ 36 a barrel.

Immediate reaction from observers, who in recent weeks have been looking forward to the fluctuations in oil prices (just a month ago the Texan even collapsed below parity). The question everyone is asking at the moment is always the same: the worse has really passed?

Oil price rises: the reasons

Last month, in what has already been renamed as the dramatic April of crude oil, the expiration of the May futures triggered a real wave of sales and the price of WTI oil entered in negative territory for the first time in history.

Many had feared the recurrence of this situation as the June deadline approaches, but none of this has occurred. Indeed, on the eve of the aforementioned deadline, black gold has forcefully embarked on the upward path.

According to observers, this could mean that fears regarding the collapse of demand, excess supply and limited capacity of stocks, are being finally fading.

Surely, the jump in oil prices in the last few hours has also found raison d’etre in the inventory data reported by the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, according to which stocks fell by 4.983 million barrels compared to the -0.745 million recorded on the last occasion and still compared to the 1.151 million increase forecast by the consensus.

Is the worst really behind you?

Although the EIA data were naturally perceived as positive for the WTI and Brent prices, TD Securities analysts expressed their doubts stating that before observing a price recovery in the $ 40 area these are likely to face a new downturn.

“The combination of the additional cuts reported by key producers will reduce the accumulation of stocks by year end. This means that the WTI may reach our target of $ 40 months earlier than expected, but there may be a modest reversal sooner. ”

For the moment, meanwhile, both the WTI and Brent oil prices are enjoying the bullish momentum and are moving above $ 34 and $ 36 respectively.

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