nightmare scenario with the new lockdown


With new lockdown measures, we could witness one nightmare scenario for Italian companies. This is what emerges from an update of the forecasts on the impact of the pandemic on Italian companies created by the Cerved Rating Agency.

The study, drawn up on the basis of a sample made up of 30 thousand companies, shows that in the event that our country, due to a return of the Coronavirus, should undergo new containment measures, the risk of insolvency for Italian companies could triple.

Italy: insolvency companies could triple

In particular, the risk of insolvency of Italian companies, reports the study entitled “Evolution and impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic emergency on Italian non-financial corporates”, could pass from the current 4.9 to 15.5%. In February the same figure had been estimated at 10%.

“The increase in the probability of default will be very different, not only for the different impact of Covid19, but also for the trends that may emerge in the post-Covid”, commented Fabrizio Negri, chief executive officer of Cerved Rating Agency.

Dimensionally, major defaults are expected to occur for small businesses (from 11% to 21% for micro enterprises) and less structured (28% for individual companies), while from a geographical point of view the largest data should be recorded in the South (18%).

Italy: these are the sectors most at risk with a new lockdown

In the study on the effects of Covid on the Italian economy, three scenarios were taken as reference:

  • one “Soft”, which provides that we will not see new waves of contagli (default probability of 7.7%);
  • one “Medium”, in which a new wave could lead to new lockdowns of up to 4 months (default probability at 9.7%);
  • one “Hard”, in which the new lockdowns could last up to 6 months (default probability at 15.5%).

Although the agency estimates that the probability of fulfillment of the latter scenario is low (against the high and medium probabilities of the first two), Cerved has also drawn up a sectoral ranking.

In the event of a “hard” scenario, the sector most likely to fail would be the buildings (22%), followed by accommodation and catering services and by that which includes support activities for the tourism sector (both at 19%).

Greater resilience for pharmacies (6.5%), for the food industry (6.8%) and for the food retail trade (7.9%), for which the default risk is between six and a half and eight points percentages.

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