The study, drawn up on the basis of a sample made up of 30 thousand companies, shows that in the event that our country, due to a return of the Coronavirus, should undergo new containment measures, the risk of insolvency for Italian companies could triple.
Italy: insolvency companies could triple
In particular, the risk of insolvency of Italian companies, reports the study entitled “Evolution and impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic emergency on Italian non-financial corporates”, could pass from the current 4.9 to 15.5%. In February the same figure had been estimated at 10%.
“The increase in the probability of default will be very different, not only for the different impact of Covid19, but also for the trends that may emerge in the post-Covid”, commented Fabrizio Negri, chief executive officer of Cerved Rating Agency.
Dimensionally, major defaults are expected to occur for small businesses (from 11% to 21% for micro enterprises) and less structured (28% for individual companies), while from a geographical point of view the largest data should be recorded in the South (18%).
Italy: these are the sectors most at risk with a new lockdown
In the study on the effects of Covid on the Italian economy, three scenarios were taken as reference:
- one “Soft”, which provides that we will not see new waves of contagli (default probability of 7.7%);
- one “Medium”, in which a new wave could lead to new lockdowns of up to 4 months (default probability at 9.7%);
- one “Hard”, in which the new lockdowns could last up to 6 months (default probability at 15.5%).
Although the agency estimates that the probability of fulfillment of the latter scenario is low (against the high and medium probabilities of the first two), Cerved has also drawn up a sectoral ranking.
In the event of a “hard” scenario, the sector most likely to fail would be the buildings (22%), followed by accommodation and catering services and by that which includes support activities for the tourism sector (both at 19%).
Greater resilience for pharmacies (6.5%), for the food industry (6.8%) and for the food retail trade (7.9%), for which the default risk is between six and a half and eight points percentages.