Movements between regions, the risk index and doubts about the reopening of Lombardy

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We are studded with data on contagions and healed, percentages of positives and swabs performed, rate of spread of the virus with R0 and Rt, trend of epidemiological curves. Of encouraging numbers for Lombardy, and well highlighted in the daily bulletins, there are several. The increase in new cases today advances below 1% in percentage terms against the peaks of 30% in March, when there were up to 3,200 new cases in one day (the index dropped steadily below 10% at the end of March, and then to 2-3% in April). The new hospitalizations are lower than those discharged from April 6 (they travel around minus 1% in the last week), the same happens for intensive care (minus 5%). And the president of the Sanit High School Silvio Brusaferro was also optimistic: a sharp downward trend, a positive sign (the last Rt 0.5). This is important to know that the virus is under control and that there is no longer the risk of default of the hospital system: if we get sick, we find a place in the hospital without problems.

Risk index: what is and why it is important

But to decide the free everyone on travel may not be enough

. The numbers of Lombardy that concern are the least known. To understand why the hypothesis that its borders may not have been reopened since June 3 – an option that will hopefully be averted – still needs to be made an effort. And look at those who in jargon callnet risk index is potential risk index. They are the new weekly infections and the number of patients overall compared to the population (out of 10 thousand inhabitants). also on these parameters that the attention of the experts must be concentrated to decide the green light to extra-regional movements. This was explained by epidemiologist Vittorio Demicheli who is part of the ministry of Health’s control room representing the Regions: According to the last monitoring of last week, Lombardy has 2.4 new infections per week per 10,000 inhabitants. Veneto and Tuscany 0.4, Sardinia and Sicily 0.1. In summary it means that, living in Lombardy, the risk of developing the disease over the course of a week equals 2.4 cases per 10 thousand inhabitants.

Because the reopening of the borders of Lombardy could slip

In absolute, moreover, given the 24,477 current patients (yesterday’s biggest drop, minus 700), they are present and still potentially infectious 24 subjects per 10 thousand inhabitants, against the Italian average of 9.2. These are data that cannot be ignored and advise caution – underlines Demicheli -. As a percentage of the population, potentially contagious people still have significant numbers. one of the reasons why, as anticipated yesterday by Courier service, if there were still some critical points It is possible that it may be decided to delay the opening of the borders of Lombardy for a week, two at the most. In short: only with the latest updates on Friday will we know if the encouraging data will be considered sufficient to reopen the region most affected by the epidemic. The same assessments could apply to Piedmont with a net risk index of 1.7 e potential of 17.4.

May 26, 2020 | 21:55

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