Movements between regions, reopening in one step. Only Lombardy remains under the lens

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Rome, June 26, 2020 – Technically, the road to the reopenings it is downhill. The 3 reopens. There are doubts only for Lombardy and probably, if necessary, only for a part of it. The government’s hope is to give the green disk to all regions. It is no coincidence that the circular of the Ministry of Health of April 30 establishes – point 3.2 of table 3 – that the alert is triggered when the RT value (the reproducibility index of the virus) is greater than one. Therefore, much lower thresholds (even 0.2 / 0.3) that had circulated in the past days are not confirmed. The value of one (which, however, alone, would not be enough to trigger the ban on the reopening of regional borders or other restrictions) is, right now, quite high. Already today – and the data are decreasing daily – the average level of all regions is less than 1.

In the last report of the Control Room (May 16), the index falls in Lombardy (from 0.62 to 0.51), Piedmont (from 0.58 to 0.39), Emilia-Romagna (from 0.6 to 0.49), Marche (from 0.55 to 0.48) and Lazio . It collapses in Umbria (from 1.23 to 0.53) and rises slightly in Tuscany (from 0.39 to 0.59). But it is always well below the threshold, excluding the small Val D’Aosta where few cases are enough to raise the rate.



The new data will be available on Friday, and are expected to be even lower. So, unless there are sensational surprises, the RT index will not be a problem. Some margins remain especially for Lombardy, given the large number of total cases and the numbers of the infections of the last few days, although they are decreasing. Here too, the feelings of the experts are positive, but if there is a region at risk it is Lombardy.

Note that the decree law of May 16 clearly states that “from June 3 interregional travel they can be limited only with measures adopted pursuant to the decree law 19, in relation to specific areas, according to the principles of adequacy and proportionality to the epidemiological risk actually present “.

Translated: on 3 June it has already been decided that it will reopen, in the event that it is deemed necessary to close certain areas (not necessarily the entire territory of a region), however, a specific reasoned ordinance is required.

According to the circular of April 20, the reopening “can only take place where close monitoring of the progress of the virus transmission is ensured”. Other prerequisites are “the degree of preparation and maintenance of the health system, to ensure the identification and management of contacts; the monitoring of people in quarantine; an adequate and timely execution of swabs for the diagnostic assessment of cases; the connection between primary care and hospitalization; as well as the constant and timely supply of information flows “.



There are twenty-one factors to consider, the data will flow into an algorithm and in a risk matrix. Among the more delicate indicators “the presence of cases increasing in the last 5 days”. But as infections are expected to resume “in the first 15-20 days after reopening”, this indicator will also be assessed “together with the number of new transmission outbreaks”. We refer in particular to “the evidence of new outbreaks in the past 7 days in RSA, rest homes and hospitals or other places that host vulnerable populations”. Furthermore, the occupancy rate of intensive care units must be less than 30% and that of the other beds dedicated to Covid 19 by 40%. But nothing is automatic. The control room will suggest measures, but ultimately the decision will be political.



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