Libya, will the US strategy change with Democrats in the White House?

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How could the American strategy change in the Mediterranean if Democrats win in the White House? If the administration Trump was characterized by a substantial easing of attention on Libya, with often contradictory positions, preferring other areas such as the Middle East and China, which will instead be the address of Joe Biden in foreign policy?

Starting point: the Syrian-style risiko that is going on stage, with protagonists Putin and Erdogan, on which Democrats could decide to insert themselves by strengthening the Atlantic axis made up of the USA, England and NATO in support of the Tripoli government.

On the occasion of the speech delivered at the Graduate Center at Cuny in New York, Joe Biden also presented his ideas in foreign policy “to repair the damage caused by President Trump and trace a substantially different route for the American foreign policy for the world “.

He previously said that the American embassy in Israel would stay in Jerusalem defining the Trumpian decision to move the diplomatic base from Tel Aviv “Shortsighted and frivolous”. Although the Mediterranean macro-area has not been openly mentioned, it is evident that the announced discontinuity with the Trump administration should also reverberate on a complex side such as the Libya (always assuming that the situation at the end of the elections has not changed again and hopelessly).

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div class=”image”><img class=”lazyload” src=”https://st.ilfattoquotidiano.it/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/24/variant-med_1200x630-obj18578571-330×173.jpg” alt=”Libya, Nyt: “Former US adviser John Bolton did not oppose Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli. He told him to launch a quick attack “”/>

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Libya, Nyt: “Former US adviser John Bolton did not oppose Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli. He told him to launch a quick attack “

Most recently Biden has publicly said that he disagrees with some of interventionist policies Obama, especially in Libya, while asking to ease the Iranian sanctions, to return to the Iranian nuclear deal and to restore relations with Cuba. A few days ago President Trump called Erdogan to ask for a rapid de-escalation, since he United States they want to prevent Libya from becoming another Syria.

But beyond today, the reasoning based on Democrats must be seen in the future. If Biden’s imperative is to make a U-turn against Trump’s strategies, then a new US commitment in Libya can be expected. The Atlantic axis made up of the USA, England and NATO which supports the Tripoli government of Al-Serraj then it could be strengthened by a different “use” of the Turkey, which in fact replaced Italy in the Libyan interlocution.

At work on Biden’s foreign dossier there are a number of technical figures, such as Antony Blinken, close to Biden for almost 20 years, both when the dem candidate was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and during Obama’s first term, when he was also deputy secretary of state. His team understands Brian McKeon, whose ties to the candidate date back to the 1980s, and national security analysts who served under Obama, such as Julianne Smith, Colin Kahl, Ely Ratner and Jeffrey Prescott.

The Trump administration since its establishment has openly shown a marked disinterestedness for the Libyan case, by virtue of years of so – called muscle isolationism characterized exclusively by the fight against terrorism in other parts of the Middle East, alongside the commercial and geopolitical contrast with China. He commented, commenting on the first steps of the newly elected Trump, that in essence the US would proceed to a de-responsibility in the Mediterranean quadrant, to focus on other objectives considered priority.

But towards the end of last year, the White House seemed to want to reverse that trend at least given the complexity of the situation in Libya. The meeting of a US delegation with the general last November 24 should be remembered Khalifa Haftar, reaffirming Washington’s support for Libya’s sovereignty and integrity but at the same time expressing the stars and stripes concerns over the exploitation of the conflict on the Russian side (i.e. militias, oil resources, Noc, Tripoli).

Ten days earlier, the Us-Libya Security Dialogue had been held in Washington in the presence of members of the Government of National Accord, in which the request had been made to the Libyan National Army (LNA) block the offensive on Tripoli. All passages that did not cancel the Trump administration’s contradictory stances on Libya.

These are pills of renewed activism, which are also linked to contingency COVID-19, on which occasion the US will provide $ 6 million in additional humanitarian assistance to Libya in response to the pandemic. They are money that, in intentions, will help health officials to prevent the spread of disease and to respond to the needy who contracted the disease.

However, an element linked to the objective contingency, rather than to the actual subjective strategy, should not be overlooked: whoever wins the November elections will face a probable recession, with an electorate taken by other problems and uninterested in long-term military interventions. A useful premise to understand what kind of foreign policy will be built.

@ReteLibia

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