The social, political and economic consequences of pandemic in progress could result in a new international geopolitical structure.
A rebalancing between East and West could take place, facilitated by an administration and by a social and economic system that is now damaged: the Atlantic one. We could see a restructuring of the globalized capitalist system in favor of greater segmentation and intensification of rivalries.
Capitalism from the 1980s to the present day has seen a profound dislocation of production chains, which has resulted in a stringent and perhaps excessive interdependence between the main economies. Reason why today we have reason to worry, and not a little, considering how it already is Great Depression in 1929, at a time when the concept of the “nation state” was at the peak of popularity, had reached an almost worldwide extension.
The appeal to solidarity that many political leaders (especially European) are promoting, is almost like a subdued request for help, an invocation to the so-called “Bail-out”. The paradoxical nature of this trend is inherent in the fact that it is universally recognized as excessive interdependence, the so-called neoliberalism, and the fuse through which this virus has been able to spread everywhere.
Three possible geopolitical evolutions
Le Monde Diplomatique foresees three possible geopolitical scenarios: the first foresees one more close cooperation through the international institutions responsible for the supply of public goods. Alternatively, we could assist of radical decentralizationcharacterized by increased competition between states, which will seek to maximize their power. Ultimately, the French political magazine explains how one could emerge hybrid configuration in which cooperation and rivalry could be confused in the various sectors of international politics.
The influence of the American elections
The presidential elections of the United States of America scheduled for next Tuesday, November 3 play a key role this year. The consequences for the new possible international scenario, in the event of a democratic victory, may not change as significantly as might be expected from the transition from Trump to Biden.
We are probably harboring too many expectations for the one who is ultimately a conservative democratic candidate. The Democratic Party has been portrayed as the only force capable of changing American politics, but the American bipartisan system is debilitating in this case. The senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, it is strange but yes, they belong to the same party. If, for the first, it is more realistic to think that some changes can really take place, for the second, unfortunately, we have to clear our ideas.
From the point of view of relations with the China, Biden thinks like Trump. In a more general context, the propensity tounilateralism of the Republican President it can be, always in case of democratic victory, the maximum braking. An American return to the US remains difficult multilateralism and to the soft power that, after all, have brought the country to the first place among the superpowers.
Even thereEuropean Union It has high expectations for a miraculous American return to the international scene in the footsteps of the post-war period. It finds itself dangerously seeking approval and aid between the US and China, between the east and the west, causing a steady decline in European influence in the rest of the world. The sooner we understand and force ourselves that our future is in our hands, the sooner we will be able to limit the damage.
How Coronavirus will affect the American election